Category Archives: Ethics

The attacker was from Nashville, Tennesse.

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Yesterday, I explained to you in great details how the attacker tried to incriminate NewsFutures by creating the illusion that the 2 websites denigrating me were webhosted by NewsFutures &#8212-a forged Reverse IP Lookup gave this false impression. Today, I would like to investigate the hypothesis the IP addresses of the attacker.

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First ever comment from &#8220-The Colonel&#8221-:
Why are you so quick to assume that the sum total of that company’s employees is only those listed in the press release? Consensus Point is a vast and glowing network of neurons and axons, spanning a veritable galaxy of prediction market technology. Surely there must be artists, coders, schemers, evil geniuses, dolts, and assorted scribblers involved in such a breathtaking endeavor.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/17/linda-rebrovick-consensus-point/#comment-23404
74.165.154.224
http://whois.domaintools.com/74.165.154.224
BellSouth – Nashville

Second comment from The Colonel (who, for the first time, uses the link to chrismasse.com under his byline):
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/google-inkling-markets-is-ranked-much-higher-than-consensus-point/#comment-23565
68.52.155.14
http://whois.domaintools.com/68.52.155.14
ComCast – Nashville

Defending the &#8220-chief scientist&#8221-:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/the-prediction-market-consultants-who-matter-and-the-others-who-dont/#comment-23567
98.211.0.48
http://whois.domaintools.com/98.211.0.48
ComCast – Murfreesboro (a suburb of Nashville, Tennesse)

[UPDATE: The president of the company indeed lives in Murfreesboro, see the bottom of that page.]

Telling Chris Masse&#8217-s opinion is worthless.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/google-inkling-markets-is-ranked-much-higher-than-consensus-point/#comment-23583
68.52.155.14
http://whois.domaintools.com/68.52.155.14
ComCast – Nashville

His further comments (after that Niall O&#8217-Connor has step up in the browl):
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/06/chris-f-masse-is-a-fraud/#comment-23623
67.207.137.220
http://whois.domaintools.com/67.207.137.220
BellSouth – San Diego

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NEXT: Dave, was it *you*?

NEXT: Who did it?

How to set Reverse IP Lookup to anything that you like (or dislike, should I say, in this case)… including a NewsFutures server that does not exist in reality…!!!…

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Dear readers,

Now is time to give you some background information about last week&#8217-s incident. As you all know, somebody was irked by what I said about the EPM software vendors and set up, not one, but two websites denigrating moi.

#1. I don&#8217-t care if someone makes a fool of moi. I am fair game. Plus, it gives a laughing opportunity to the Chief Economist of Midas Oracle, because it is revenge for my making fool of him when he is so wrong about the article in The Economist or else (follow the HubDub link given by Mike Linksvayer).

#2. My big concern with that attack is that it might well come from somebody I know &#8212-and who has always had the kindest words for me (including last week). So, that person might well be a hypocrite, and my trust in him (and his prediction market company, if any) will be wiped out, if my suspicion is confirmed.

#3. My secondary concern is that that attacker (who might well be a prediction market software vendor or a disgruntled employee) tried to put the blame on NewsFutures (both a prediction market software vendor and a public prediction exchange) for the 2 websites (&#8221-Chris F. Masse is a Fraud&#8221-, and &#8220-Overcoming Midas&#8221-). Just after that the 2 websites were discovered (by one innocent reader, who simply followed the web link posted by a commenter, &#8220-The Colonel&#8221-), many people e-mailed me to tell that I should do a &#8220-reverse IP lookup&#8220- to find out who is behind&#8230- I did&#8230- The result was &#8220-dev24.newsfutures.com&#8221-. I was very surprised to see NewsFutures involved in this attack, and I sent the link to Emile Servan-Schreiber, who, first, expressed astonishment, and then forwarded the link to his CTO (Maurice Balick, some of you know him very well), who is a computer whiz and a master of &#8220-The Internets&#8221- &#8212-as would say former president George W. Bush. :-D

It turned out that:

– NewsFutures sent a &#8220-cease and desist&#8221- letter to the webhost of these 2 websites. Here is a very short excerpt of the NewsFutures letter:

That IP address provides a Reverse-ARP record containing dev24.newsfutures.com. However, we own the domain newsfutures.com and we have never authorized anyone to setup this fake RARP record.

– In the meantime, following the brouhaha made on Midas Oracle when the IP address of The Colonel was revealed, the attacker cleared the RARP record during the night so that it no longer pointed to NewsFutures (the non-existent dev24.newsfutures.com address).

– There are other technical and legal developments to this case, but I am not at liberty to talk further.

– However, I would like to explain to you how it was possible to put the blame on NewsFutures&#8230- even though Emile and his team had nothing to do with this attack.

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The Reverse IP Lookup is so easy to fudge that it&#8217-s totally meaningless. It&#8217-s something that prediction market people should know about, so that, in the future, they would not be fooled into drawing conclusions from this kind of &#8220-evidence&#8221-.

To understand how one could fraudulently make a reverse IP lookup point to a newsfutures.com domain, Emile and Maurice bought a $20 slice on the webhost where the chrismasse.com and overcomingmidas.com websites were hosted. The hosting service then lets you set the &#8220-reverse DNS&#8221- to any URL that you like, and within a few seconds the Reverse IP Lookup tool on iWebTools will point to the URL that you chose. As an example (and as a blink-blink sign to Mike Giberson and Mike Linksvayer), Emile and Maurice made the IP point to &#8220-dev24.midasoracle.org&#8221-.

Try it: http://www.iwebtool.com/reverse_ip?domain=67.23.8.251

midas-oracle-defamer

CONCLUSION: Someone tried to incriminate NewsFutures (and fuck with our readers&#8217- mind) by setting up these agressive websites and having the Reverse IP Lookup point to a fake NewsFutures URL.

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UPDATE:

Did the attacker try to pin it on, not just one, but *two* prediction market software vendors?
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/13/did-the-attacker-try-to-pin-it-on-not-just-one-but-two-prediction-market-software-vendors/

Another day… and yet another lie from the BetFair SEO artists…

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The BetFair SEO artists (and other &#8220-social media consultants&#8221-) would say just say *anything* and do *anything* to get a blogger to link to betting.betfair.com. Including a falsification. Here is what they e-mailed me:

[…] betting.betfair.com. You may or may not have seen the site before, but basically it’s a big sports blog with about 45 writers […!!!…] doing useful previews, tips and analysis from lots of different sports. It’s an excellent site and one which has received recognition from the Soccerlens awards.

Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described betting.betfair.com as &#8220-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers&#8221-. […]

It is not exactly true.

Here is what Soccer Lens really says (look up the last line in bold):
Best Football Betting Site of 2008

Readers’ Choice: OLBG.

Online Betting Guide (OLBG) is a comprehensive resource for football betting and one of the most popular betting sites around.

Runner Up: Betfair.

Editors’ Choice: OLBG.

We’ve discussed this before – not all the top sites on football betting were included in the nominations. Of those that were, OLBG (and Betfair) stood head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers.

Runner Up: Betfair.

The winner for this category (for best soccer betting blog) was OBLG &#8212-it was both the readers&#8217- choice and the editors&#8217- choice.

The BetFair blog came second &#8212-in both the readers&#8217- choice and the editors&#8217- choice.

So it is just a lie to say that:

Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described betting.betfair.com as &#8220-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers&#8221-.

The truth is rather:

Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described OBLG as &#8220-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers&#8221-.

HubDub: Death markets are now banned.

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HubDub:

Hubdub does not permit markets on the impending death (for example how or when) of people, or markets considered to be death tolls, unless expressly approved at the discretion of the Category Editor. This rule will apply even in the context of a mainstream news story. This rule applies to all markets created after February 10, 2009.

Nigel, welcome to Reality 2.0.

Is Chris Masse a spammer?

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In response to the remark posted by the charming Bo Cowgill, I am not the author of the spamming comment referred to by David Pennock. Being a smart and investigative researcher, David Pennock understood that already, and aimed at analyzing that strange spamming process. (Others prefer wasting their time analyzing the &#8220-flow of information&#8221-.)

UPDATE: David Pennock has just said in a comment on his blog that the spamming comment was made from an IP address from &#8220-New Dehli, India&#8221- &#8212-which is obviously not my location. So, I can now sue Bo Cowgill for defamation and collect a good bundle of $$$. :-D

PS: If the charming Bo Cowgill refers to my very occasional sending of mass e-mails to the registered members of my group blog, Midas Oracle .ORG, I don&#8217-t think it should be qualified as spamming, but I am ready to listen to contrarian opinions from veteran Internet users.

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Our Embargo Policy

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There are scores of reactions out there about Michael Arrington&#8217-s decision to &#8220-break every embargo we agree to.&#8221-

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#1. I WILL RESPECT YOUR EMBARGO.

If you give me and all the other media outlets a news ahead of its official unveiling, I will indeed publish after the date and time you mentioned.

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#2. I WILL NOT PUBLISH YOUR TRADE SECRETS.

Period.

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#3. I WILL NOT RECEIVE ORDERS FROM YOU.

If the news is public (say, published on an official governmental website), then I will go ahead informing the Midas Oracle readers about that public information.

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#4. MIDAS ORACLE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEATHER ANY RETALIATION.

– Midas Oracle is the world&#8217-s #1 group blog on prediction markets.

– Our LinkedIn group is the world&#8217-s #1 social networking group on prediction markets (4 times bigger than the San Francisco bozo&#8217-s one).

– Our Open Institute Of Prediction Markets will be the world&#8217-s #1 institution on prediction markets, juicing out luminaries, prediction market companies, and other organizations.

See, life is too short to waste it with psychos who over-obsess with putting up their name in press releases. We are building for the long term, as for us.

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#5. Here are our Terms Of Use.

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The HubDub prediction markets on assassinations could be somewhat useful in some cases -now that I am sober and that I think of it.

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I published 3 times my opinion that it is a nuclear scandal of apocalyptic proportions that HubDub allows prediction markets on celebs&#8217- death and assassination. My view is that this will attract strong criticism from people who are very strict on the issue of morality. And the prediction markets don&#8217-t need another polemique at this time.

But after reading Medemi&#8217-s comment, popped up an idea in my mind. Medemi tells about the assassination of Pim Fortuyn, an extremist politician in Holland &#8212-who received many death threats and did not get appropriate protection. His assassination was predictable. (He was indeed gunned down during a political campaign.) If, at the time, a prediction market had been opened on the likelihood of his violent death, the high probabilities would have attracted attention &#8212-and, as a result, maybe the Police would have granted Pim Fortuyn a special protection.

What do you think?

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The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade are *STRUCTURALLY* designed to *DETER* any InTrade trader from betting on the negative side of the issue.

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Link via Jason Ruspini

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Previously: The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won&#8217-t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.

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The Objectivity -according to BetFair

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BetFair Predicts (a blog run by BetFair) titled &#8220-The Power Of Objectivity&#8221- a post giving the latest odds produced by BetFair on the race for the White House.

The real &#8220-objectivity&#8221- would have been to quote the odds produced by the other prediction exchanges, too &#8212-InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Betdaq, NewsFutures, HubDub, etc.

Midas Oracle is the only blog that lists prices and probabilities from all the prediction exchanges. No wonder, our daily readership is much, much bigger than the audience of all the other prediction market blogs combined. A blog that gives the odds of one exchange only is like a dead end &#8212-no one trusts a dead end.

Please, do support Midas Oracle.

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