I propose the following test to check whether &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8220-.

– Is J.K. Rowling able to write an 8th installment of the series (a sequel) without resurrecting Harry Potter?

1. If &#8220-yes&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

2. If &#8220-no&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is not alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

NOTE: Prequels are of course allowed in both cases. (Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip)

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1. If J.K. Rowling writes in an epilogue that Harry Potter will die after a life well lived (that is, from natural cause, after a long and happy life), then an 8th book is possible.

2. If J.K. Rowling writes that Harry Potter dies in the hands of his &#8220-old nemesis&#8221-, then an 8th book is not possible (unless J.K. Rowling resurrects her hero).

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Note that, in the Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes case, we are in the configuration #2.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows. (15,813 contracts held.)

© NewsFutures

Static chart:

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Previous: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

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NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

• The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
• THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
• Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
• Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
• Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
• If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
• 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

South Florida Sun-Sentinel:

[&#8230-] After a storm begins forming off the coast of Africa, for example, a buyer can obtain a contract covering the first storm to make landfall in Florida. The risk level of the storm will be determined by a sliding scale – the CME Carvill Hurricane Index – that takes into account the size of the hurricane, maximum wind velocity and damage potential. The scale starts at zero and rises as the storm becomes larger and more powerful.

If the storm approaches any part of Florida and becomes a higher category hurricane, the index rises. Thus, a contract purchased when the index was at 2, for example, at $2,000, would be worth $10,000 when the index rises to 10. The futures owner can hold onto the contract at $10,000, or sell it for a higher price if the risk increases.

If the contract is worth $10,000 and the hurricane strikes Florida, the holder can obtain $10,000 cash within a few days. This compares to traditional insurance policies where claims may not be settled for months.

However, if a hurricane does not strike land in Florida during the 2007 season, a contract – whether it cost $2,000 or $10,000 or more – is worthless. The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. [&#8230-]

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

• “I’m very concerned with the international situation and what’s happening in Tibet.”
• How to win $100 in play money at HubDub, regardless of any political outcome
• Problem 17: Prediction Markets — USMA D/Math Problem of the Week — Submission Deadline: April 3, 2008 at 1600
• Midas Oracle is now powered by WordPress 2.5 —and you should be too.
• Would be fun to have the equivalent for event derivatives.

Last time, when I said that there was a problem with the TradeSports chart, nobody believed me and Caveat Bettor treated me like a decerebrated idiot. See the problem??? The TradeSports chart spans on one day, only.

Let&#8217-s try again the TradeSports code lines (pasted here in order to generate a dynamic chart &#8211-i.e., a chart that will update itself in the future):

There is OBVIOUSLY a technical problem.

Anyway.

James Hamilton has managed to better the TradeSports-InTrade US recession contract:

Given the concerns expressed by Stephen Kirchner about the original details of the Tradesports contract, I suggested to Tradesports a tighter definition of what it means for the U.S. to go into a recession, which they&#8217-ve now adopted. The current contract declares that the U.S. will be said to have experienced a recession in 2007 if the Commerce Department numbers as reported on February 15, 2008 show 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between 2006:Q4 and 2007:Q4.

Here&#8217-s what Stephen Kirchner had written:

As is often the case with prediction markets, the contract specification raises more questions than it answers. There is no reference to whether the contract expires with the advance, preliminary or final GDP releases. The potential expiry with the Q3 release still leaves open the possibility of a recession in 2007 as a result of revisions to historical data. You could be right about a recession in 2007 and still lose money with this contract specification. And why do we need the media to confirm data released by the BEA? Perhaps Intrade are trying to avoid the problems that arose with their North Korean missile launch contract.

TradeSports-InTrade John Delaney should take advice from economists BEFORE setting up any economics-related prediction markets. He&#8217-s probably not humble enough to do that. I have always said that creating prediction markets requires a dual competency, which prediction exchange managers are unlikely to possess &#8212-they are managers, not thinkers, I will tell you. Thus, the need for experts advising prediction exchanges &#8212-that&#8217-s how the &#8220-humility&#8221- factor comes in.

Addendum: Professor James Hamilton of Econ Browser tells me that he has slightly modified the TradeSports code line to read now:

Finally!!!!!! It works.

Addendum: Professor James Hamilton says, in a comment:

CEO John Delaney has been extremely gracious in all his dealings with me, and responded very quickly to my suggestions on the recession contract. He’s also invited me to consult with them prior to launching future economic contracts. So I think he’s on board for your message.

OK.

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

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