PREDICTION MARKET TECHNOLOGY NOT IN GARTNERS TOP 10 TECHNOLOGIES LIST

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Via Jim Anderson

Gartner:

1. Multicore and hybrid processors
2. Virtualization and fabric computing
3. Social networks and social software
4. Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
5. Web mashups
6. User Interface
7. Ubiquitous computing
8. Contextual computing
9. Augmented reality
10. Semantics

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. —
  • Knows the similarity between Google, Craig’s List, and the Drudge Report?
  • “Listening to each other is core to our culture, and we don’t listen to each other just because we’re all so smart. We listen because everyone has good ideas, and because it’s a great way to show respect. And any company, at any point in its history, can start listening more.”
  • 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
  • Tech News Of The Day — Friday Morning Edition
  • VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.
  • Any idea what Brad Stewart means with that logo that features a south-to-north rotation? — Does he want to put our Planet Earth upside down? — The real rotation occurs around an axis that connects the north and the south poles.

Consensus Point wins… NewsFutures and others lose…

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David Perry (of Consensus Point) has just clinched a deal.

I have told you many times that David Perry is a very gifted salesperson and business executive. Under-rate him at your own risk.

UPDATE: I&#8217-m told it&#8217-s a nano deal. :-D

Australian billionaire James Packer, who owns 50% of BetFair Australia (thru PBL), has quit the Church of Scientology.

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The Sydney Morning Herald:

However, observers suggest Mr Packer&#8217-s expanding casino empire has presented issues difficult to reconcile with Scientologist beliefs. Scientology&#8217-s founder, the science fiction author L. Ron Hubbard, denounced gambling. &#8220-An obsessive gambler is a psychotic just like a drug addict or an alcoholic,&#8221- Hubbard wrote in 1977.

Wikipedia

Old BBC story

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

BetFair is experimenting a phenomenal revenue growth with sports prediction markets, as I am typing this post. Maybe our good friend the pragmatist could look into that, and report his research findings to the CFTC. Im sure hell do. The delicious sound of a red-hot cash register, with the dollars (o

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BetFair’s bet matching process stopped for one full hour on May 7, 2008, and their P.R. people are over-apologizing for it. They are apologizing for the problem, and for their slow response to affected customers &#8212-good move. They are also giving out 10 bundles of ?1,000 each to 10 affected traders chosen at random &#8212-a move I have mixed feelings with.

OK. Now, the beef.

General Formula for Equation of Exponential Growth

During the same period we’ve continually seen record volumes of bets. For example, the value of bets placed on Betfair last week was greater than for any previous week including Cheltenham or Aintree [which are big British horse racing events].

Three different expontial growth functions

Inkling Markets GodFather Speaks Out.

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Taking his propos and applying them to Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny, you&#8217-d get that:

  • The key is Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny&#8217-s determination. They refuse to fail.
  • The key for Nate Kontny was to find out a good co-founder &#8212-that was Adam Siegel.
  • [M]arket is the biggest determinant in the outcome of successful startups. […] Smart people [like Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny] will find big markets.

Same things could be said of David Perry and Ken Kittlitz, or Emile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.

PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE ARRIVED: The Sporting Exchange (BetFair-TradeFair) ranks #4 in the Silicon Alley Insiders list of the top 25 digital startups, and is valued at 5 billion US dollars. (Yes, billions.)

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SAI 25 Live

Methodology

Current listing

Blog post

SAI 25: THE BETFAIR PAGE

Estimated Value: $5 billion

Business: World&#8217-s largest Internet betting exchange where users can gamble on everything from horseracing to tennis matches.

Location: London, United Kingdom

More Info: About Betfair

CEO: David Yu – [ a US citizen :-D ]

Investors: Index Ventures, JP Morgan Partners, Benchmark Capital, UBS Capital, and Soft Bank.

Analysis: People love gambling, and Betfair provides a safe, simple, and un-sleazy way for them to do it. The company allows bettors to place bets and bookies to arrange them, and it keeps 5% of winnings.

Betfair&#8217-s business is illegal in the United States of Arbitrary Morals, of course (thanks to the gambling lobby?), but the rest of the world isn&#8217-t so uptight. Unlike other British market makers, Betfair has been smart enough not to accept American credit cards, which puts it out of reach of US regulators. We suppose the British government could destroy Betfair with an attack of Americanitis, [????????] but we don&#8217-t see that happening. In fact, their neighbor&#8211-the E.U.&#8211-is reportedly looking into whether or not the U.S. ban on Web betting hurts E.U. companies, and, if so, it might be willing to take the US to the WTO court.

Softbank bought a 23% interest in Betfair for $600M in February of 2006, implying a valuation of $2.6 billion. The company has grown from $10 million in revenue in 2002 to $365 million in 2007 and generated $70M in operating profit in fiscal 2006. We estimate about $500 million in revenue in 2008 and believe the company is worth about 10X that. Thus, we estimate that Betfair is worth about $5 billion.

Fantastic.

That will help a lot.

Congrats to the BetFair-TradeFair people.

UPDATE: BetFair&#8217-s valuation will probably drop from $5 billion to $3 billion!!!!

BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.

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BetFair Corporate (PDF file):

21st April 2008

BETFAIR WINS SECOND QUEEN’S AWARD FOR ENTERPRISE

Online betting company recognised for International Trade

BETFAIR, the UK’s biggest online betting company, is proud to announce that it has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight year history.

The 2008 award comes in the International Trade category, five years after Betfair was recognised in the Innovation category for creating the first successful betting exchange – a new concept which meant a better deal for customers and greater protections within the betting industry.

Since 2003, Betfair has grown substantially from a company with 100,000 users, of which only 8 percent were from outside the UK and Ireland, to a customer base in excess of one million where over 40 percent are international users.

Winners of the Queen’s Award are selected on the recommendation of the Prime Minister and an independent advisory committee. Betfair joins a select group who have been honoured twice since the inception of the awards in 1966 and it means the company will be able to carry the Queen’s Award emblem for another five years.

David Yu, Chief Executive of Betfair, said: “Upon winning our first award in 2003, our chairman and co-founder Edward Wray said that the company was looking forward to taking this great British innovation onto the global stage. Five years on, this award for International Trade is recognition of the strides we’ve made towards achieving that aim.”

“Betfair continues to pride itself on its innovation, integrity, fairness to customers and a determination to work in partnership with international governments and regulators. Those qualities are being recognised throughout the world and we now have operational bases in Australia and Malta to support over one million registered customers.”

With this award, Betfair joins the likes of Rolls Royce, Weetabix, Aston Martin and who have all been winners in the International Trade category in recent years.

Notes to Editors:

Since winning its first Queen’s award in 2003, Betfair has grown from 200 employees to over 1200 people in 2008, spread across its bases in Hammersmith, Stevenage, Malta and Australia. Driven by cutting-edge technology, Betfair enables customers to choose their own odds, even after an event has started. Betfair processes 5 million transactions a day, more than all of the European stock exchanges combined. Over half of all new customers now come from outside of the UK &amp- Ireland.

In addition to the exchange, Betfair now has an established games portfolio. Betfair Poker, Betfair Games, Betfair Casino and Betfair&#8217-s accumulator products are hosted from Malta. It is an area that has seen significant growth and investment. The company is also developing new revenue streams by providing automated price feeds to third parties, establishing white-label exchanges and through its own Betfair Mobile product. In 2007, Betfair launched a new company, Tradefair, for those wishing to bet on financial markets.

Betfair is a licensed betting operator in the UK, and also operates under licenses in Australia, Austria, Italy and Malta. The company is seeking licences elsewhere within the European Union and further afield. Betfair welcomes regulation and is committed to paying the appropriate product fees in every market in which it operates.

Winners in the International Trade category for the Queen’s Award must demonstrate either “outstanding achievement… sustained over not less than three years, [or] continuous achievement in international trade, sustained over not less than six years”.

Congrats to all BetFair-TradeFair employees, to all their traders, and to all their providers.

The Queen&#8217-s Award for Enterprise

The list

REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.

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SalesForce

My Starbucks Idea

Dell&#8217-s IdeaStorm

No need of trading technology to get feedback and suggestions from employees. A simple voting mechanism is more than enough.

Previously: Enterprise prediction markets give voice to serious, technology-minded professionals who really know their vertical (engineers, analysts and contractors) —and reveal how frivolous and unpertinent most horizontal managers are.