Category Archives: Betting

BetFair-TradeFair fights corruption, while TradeSports-InTrade does not.

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No GravatarTennis Corruption - NYT

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BetFair-TradeFair is legal and has ethics, while TradeSports-InTrade is not and has none.

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Via Steve Roman who provides the recap and another excerpt, The New York Times:

[&#8230-] At the center of the investigation is Betfair, one of the largest so-called online sports exchanges, which matches bettors directly against each other, rather than against the house, as traditional bookmakers do. Betfair set off the current crisis when it voided $7 million in bets after Mr. Davydenko withdrew from a match against 74th-ranked Martin Vassallo Arguello of Argentina at the Prokom Open in August in Sopot, Poland. Mr. Davydenko retired because of an injury with Mr. Vassallo Arguello ahead, 2-6, 6-3, 2-1. During the match, Betfair notified the ATP that its security team had recognized irregular betting patterns.

[&#8230-] At Betfair, which is based in London, tennis ranks third behind horse racing and soccer among its one million customers, who together place five million bets each day. More than $60 million was handled for the Wimbledon’s men’s final, won by Roger Federer over Rafael Nadal.

Robin Marks, a Betfair spokesman, said the decision to void the bets from the match in Poland — the first time the company had ever done so — was an easy one. A large amount of money was coming in for the obscure match, Mr. Marks said, and the betting patterns made little sense: Mr. Davydenko went from an odds-on favorite to a significant underdog before the match started, and his odds drifted higher and more money came in for Mr. Vassallo Arguello even after Mr. Davydenko won the first set.

By the next morning, Betfair’s 40-person security team had unearthed additional information by combing its records and tracing unique Internet addresses. Betfair passed on that information in accordance with the ATP’s anti-corruption program, which was put in place in 2003 in the wake of a match-fixing scandal in cricket. Mr. Marks said Betfair has similar agreements with 28 other sports leagues on which it takes bets. He declined to specify what Betfair had found. “Why would the betting patterns change before a ball was even hit?” Mr. Marks said. “Why would more money come in against him when he had already won the first set? You come to the assumption that somebody knew something.” [&#8230-]

Previously: BetFair has an anti-fraud team whereas InTrade-TradeSports has none.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Terrorism Futures
  • InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

The BetFair Starting Prices… explained

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The Guardian (which has the best coverage on BetFair-TradeFair):

The Betfair betting exchange will launch its starting price betting service in the middle of next month, after it received the approval of a number of the exchange&#8217-s biggest-staking clients at a series of demonstrations over the last seven days.

Betfair has spent two years developing a robust system to allow bets to be placed at its own SP. As a result, three extra columns will soon be added to its display for every win market on its British and Irish racing service: one for bets on a horse at the Betfair SP, one for &#8220-lay&#8221- bets against it at SP, and a &#8220-guide&#8221- price in the middle showing what the SP is likely to be.

The SP market and the normal exchange market will be separate, in an attempt to ensure that it is extremely difficult to manipulate the SP. Betfair also hopes to offset any reduction in overall liquidity – which is vital to any exchange – by attracting new clients.

The great majority of off-course bets are still settled at the official SP, derived from on-course betting markets, while even on the internet, around 55% of racing bets are settled at SP. The Betfair SP, derived from a market with a negligible profit margin, will allow punters to make a direct comparison between the bookmakers&#8217- odds and those on offer on the exchange.

SP bets will have some differences from &#8220-normal&#8221- bets on Betfair. Whereas normal bets can be cancelled until the moment when a rival gambler accepts the other side of the bet, SP bets cannot be cancelled once placed. Punters can, however, specify a minimum price at which they are willing to back, and a maximum price for lay bets.

In time, SP betting is likely to extend to the exchange&#8217-s place-only markets, and to many other sports in which the SP concept has never been used before.

&#8220-This has the potential to be the most significant step forward for Betfair since the exchange was launched,&#8221- Stephen Burn, Betfair&#8217-s director of horse racing, said yesterday. &#8220-Racing is scratching the surface. In time, we hope that we will be able to add it across football, tennis and so on. We could even return an SP on the next general election.&#8221-

Niall O&#8217-Connor has more.

NEXT: More on BetFair&#8217-s Starting Prices.

Binaries and Spreads: BetFair spins off TradeFair.

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Via &#8220-jwolstenholme&#8221- and via Niall O&#8217-Connor, who got the scoop, here&#8217-s UK-based TradeFair (Binaries and Spreads):

TradeFair

&#8211-&gt- David Jack (Managing Director of TradeFair) &#8212- (Thanks to Niall for the LinkedIn link.)

Is WeatherBill doing well, really??

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WeatherBill does so well that TechCrunch has just published two &#8211-yes, two&#8211- blog posts on it, today (Wednesday, October 17, 2007). Here&#8217-s the first one, which basically says that two VCs have just poured $12,5 million dollars in it. Good for them. The second blog post, written by another TechCrunch writer, and which has been quickly taken off their website, basically said the same, but with this twist:

CEO David Friedberg says that WeatherBill has hundreds of customers and faces such high demand that it needs to bring more people aboard to increase capacity. The site has launched not only in the US but Canada, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, and Norway as well.

So, should we believe the content of this now-deleted blog post? Or was it deleted because this information is not accurate? Mystery. ValleyWag should investigate. :-D

APPENDIX: Here&#8217-s the deleted TechCrunch blog post on WeatherBill. (The second item that follows is the first blog post that was published by TechCrunch.)

Deleted TechCrunch WeatherBill

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UPDATE: VentureBeat on WeatherBill&#8230-

VentureBeat on WeatherBill

UPDATE: Mark Hendrickson of TechCrunch&#8230-

Our apologies for misleading everyone into thinking Weatherbill enables people to gamble the weather as if it were a casino game. The service is meant rather to provide insurance for companies that could be aversely affected by fluctuations in the weather.

Weatherbill’s CEO informs us that only companies with a net worth of at least $1 million can participate due to regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He also says that Weatherbill is the first service to ever provide access to hedges on the weather (online or otherwise).

Also, for anyone wondering why we had two posts up about this story, that’s because Duncan and I reported on it independently by accident. I guess you could say we both find the weather very interesting.

Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market

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My name is Jonathan Gibbs, and I was asked by Chris Masse to give a little insight into the paper I wrote for my economics honors thesis at Stanford University, which was recently referenced by Justin Wolfers in his NY Times op-ed piece. I undertook this project during September 2006 to study the NBA’s point spread betting market looking for the possibility of manipulation.

I started my project looking at the relevant previous economic analyses of the NBA betting market. There were two key papers that I used as the basis for my research to build upon. The first paper, Continue reading →

YES, Harry Potter will survive J.K. Rowling’s 7th installment of the saga, The Deathly Hallows

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Via Matt Drudge, via EITB 24, a hacker whose pseudonym is “Gabriel” tells you the ending of the book, The Deathly Hallows, yet to be published. He claims to have hacked one of the computers of the publisher. The bottom line is that Harry does not die, it seems.

I have just bought all the NewsFutures “Harry Potter will survive” contracts I could snap at $80. Plus, I was granted 10 pairs of contracts thru this program, and I sold the 10 “no” contracts to some misinformed trader at $20. Here’s my VIP page at NewsFutures. [I previously flip-flopped on this issue. :) ]

Just a short note on the NewsFutures prediction exchange: very usable. Our good doctor EJSS and his employees are detail oriented, and I think that’s the way to go. As I have written 10 times on Midas Oracle, this is about satisfying the sophisticated bettors, not the Joe Six-Packs. The folks at Pop Sci’s PPX should take notice. You know, I am on the receiving end of many youngsters’ claims to be “the next NewsFutures”. Well, my message to them: get up earlier, boys.

Here are all the blog posts and comments written about Harry Potter on Midas Oracle.

If I’m right to trust the hacker “Gabriel” and I win this game, then I’ll publish a victory blog post against Niall O’Connor and Michael Giberson. Niall O’Connor swallowed the William Hill story (All the money was on Harry Potter to die, so they stopped taking bets) like a lake carp swallows a peanut butter doughball. But, that’s too early. Let’s wait and see.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

© NewsFutures

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UPDATE: The sentiment of the majority favors the Niall O’Connor theory that puts William Hill at the receiving end of insider information (”Harry Potter dies”), lately. And the NewsFutures market-generated probability would reflect the (misinformed, on this one) “wisdom of crowds”, which kind of senses that an author for kids will not make the hero die. We’ll see.

UPDATE #2: eWeek.com

milw0rm is a group of politically motivated “hacktivists” whose most famous exploit was penetrating the computers of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Bombay, the primary nuclear research facility of India, on June 3, 1998. They have anti-nuclear and pro-peace agendas and, in this case, anti-Harry Potter and pro-Pope Benedict XVI.

UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

 

Financial bookmaker BetOnMarkets rocks… in the United Kingdom.

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Regent Markets (the mother ship):

To celebrate BetOnMarkets.co.uk, the fixed-odd financial betting operator, hitting £200m turnover in the UK, it released 200 balloons outside St. Paul’s earlier today. Each balloon contained a £10 free bet for punters to have a go on the website. BetOnMarkets achieved this result in the seven years since it started operating in the UK in 2000. If any of the balloons are found in America, BetOnMarkets regrets to announce that the £10 free bet excludes US citizens due to the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act!

BetOnMarkets Balloons

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Regent Markets (the mother ship):

BetOnMarkets, the world’s foremost fixed odds financial betting provider operating eight websites in seven countries, has announced impressive financial results for the year ending 31 December 2006. The company’s turnover saw a 34 percent increase hitting a record $100 million while gross profit shot up by 290 percent to a total of $5.3 million. Commenting on the results, Jean-Yves Sireau, CEO of BetOnMarkets said: ‘These are excellent results, which clearly demonstrate BetOnMarkets’ superior customer offering and international appeal. We have accepted over 10 million transactions since the group was established in 2000 and we look forward to continued growth in 2007.’ BetOnMarkets fixed odds betting system, which limits customers risk to their fixed stake, has seen continued expansion with the group’s two largest websites betonmarkets.co.uk and betonmarkets.com taking between 6,000-10,000 bets per day, worth approximately £5 million per month.

–> Financial bookmakers are doing well in the Great Britain, it seems —whereas I don’t think the same could be said of the US-based, CFTC-regulated financial prediction exchange(s). Read prawf Tom Bell’s take on the prediction market petition, circa last month, for more info.

Read the last blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

BetFair Multiples??

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No GravatarBetFair Multiples – in the Racing Post, page 89 – Thursday, January 18, 2007

I would appreciate if a U.K.-based Midas Oracle reader informed me or sent me excerpts. Thanks. Will make up to you. I heard that it means that BetFair is going to become a bookmaker, but I can&#8217-t believe my eyes.

Betfair previously only accepted single bets on match results forcing punters wishing to make multiple match bets – such as trebles and accumulators – to go to traditional firms like William Hill and Ladbrokes.

But now, in a radical move, the Hammersmith based company are ready to accept multiples. In a major shift in strategy, Betfair itself will act as the bookmaker offering odds taken from their person-to-person singles football markets.

The company claim they will invariably offer better odds than High Street rivals even allowing for five per cent commission. Steve High, Betfair&#8217-s product manager, said: &#8220-Our aim is to be the biggest online betting company.&#8221-

(Thanks to Fabian John for the link.)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.