Category Archives: Betting

Reverse engineering of a nasty BetFair rumor that made rounds on Midas Oracle and elsewhere

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  1. The Sporting Exchange (BetFair-TradeFair) is a gaming company that operates on many countries.
  2. It would happen, occasionally, that one country&#8217-s laws would allow fixed-odds bookmakers &#8212-but not betting exchanges.
  3. BetFair would still want to operate in that country &#8211-as a bookmaker, not as a prediction exchange&#8211- to have its name out there &#8212-with the long-term goal of reverting it to a full exchange, once the laws will have been modified, later on, in the future.
  4. To do so, in the summer of 2007, BetFair began to hire people to provide prices and manage risk for that Internet sportsbook. That sportsbook has no connection whatsoever with the UK betting exchange.
  5. One un-hired job candidate told everyone who would listen that BetFair was preparing to do some hidden market-making on their betting exchange &#8212-hiring a &#8220-team of traders&#8221-.
  6. BetFair wouldn&#8217-t deny those allegations, out of fear of hinting its competitors.
  7. The sportbook, which was at the origin of that market-making rumor, is BetFair Italy &#8212-which has opened shop recently.

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BetFair Malta and Jadestone output yet another simplistic prediction game: TaiKai.

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BetFair TaiKai

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

BetFair Malta outputs a simplistic prediction game (about the 2008 European soccer tournament). Im not impressed at all.

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  1. Simplistic enough. Sounds more like a promotion trick than a real game.
  2. The Sporting Exchange has outsourced the development of this game (and others) to a Swedish team.
  3. The Swedish people won a &#8220-multi-year&#8221- contract. I don&#8217-t understand which partner is responsible for the creation of future games. Probably both, but it&#8217-s not clear. To get new game ideas, I would rather bid for them around the planet (just like book publishers and movie producers are looking out for good scripts) &#8212-as opposed to have a &#8220-multi-year&#8221- contract with someone, even a talented someone. (And in the case under my very nose, I can&#8217-t see any talent, here.)
  4. In both Internet Explorer and Mozilla FireFox, there are usability problems, as you can see in the screen shot. This BetFair site (just like their corporate site) was not designed to be fluid. A shame.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

The UKs Gambling Commission is after BetFair and Betdaq for in-running (in-play) betting.

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– Do you have any information about the customer profile in the in-running betting market (ie is it made up predominantly of specialist, knowledgeable betting customers)? &#8230- sources of information and time delays- availability of high-speed broadband- computer software packages that are specifically designed to assist in-running betting customers (known as ‘bots’).
– Do betting customers with traditional bookmakers and betting exchanges also take part in spread betting and is it a direct competitor to in-running betting?

UK&#8217-s Gambling Commission – PDF file

Via Adonis

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UPDATE: IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission&#8217-s first pointer.

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BetFairs message to the UKs Gambling Commission on betting and the integrity of sports

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Via Medemi (109 comments on their thread, and still growing), BetFair (PDF file):

3 August 2007

Integrity in Sports Betting Issues Paper Consultation Co-ordinator Gambling Commission Victoria Square House Victoria Square Birmingham B2 4BP

Dear Sir/Madam,

INTEGRITY IN SPORTS BETTING ISSUES PAPER – BETFAIR RESPONSE

I am writing on behalf of Betfair in response to the Commission’s “Issues” paper of May 2007 but have restricted this response to those questions in the paper on which Betfair has a strong view. The questions from the Commission’s paper are reproduced below in italics, followed by the Betfair response.

• What evidence is there of the incidents giving rise to concern about the integrity of sports betting in Great Britain?
• Are additional measures necessary and appropriate to uphold integrity in sports betting in Great Britain and if yes what are they?
• What is the detailed breakdown of their cost?

The evidence suggests that incidents giving rise to concern about the integrity of sports betting in Great Britain are few and far between. This is perhaps contrary to the perception created by the media and skewed somewhat by the ‘purge’ that is taking place in British horseracing.

Betfair believes that the internal measures it has in place, together with its formal agreements with sporting regulators are necessary but sufficient to uphold the integrity of betting through the Betfair exchange. The cost of ‘policing’ a sport is not something Betfair is able to comment on, but by way of comparison, Betfair’s integrity department (which covers all sport globally) is 7 strong with an annual budget of around ?250,000.

• Should each type of bet in each sport be risk-assessed? If so, by whom?
• Do you consider some types of betting to present a greater risk of the integrity of sport than others?
• If you consider some types of bets to be riskier than others, should further measures be taken to regulate them?
• Should the Commission require the gambling industry to offer only certain categories of betting opporunities?

A risk assessment of each bet type is something which any betting operator would carry out as a matter of course. A betting exchange is reliant on the confidence of its customers that the markets it offers are fair, so will not want to offer a market which is perceived as open to corruption.

Some types of bet do present a greater risk to the integrity of a sport and they are generally those bets that occur within a sporting event as opposed to the outcome of the event itself.

In these cases it is perhaps the performance of one player that could be influenced for commercial gain. However, the vast majority of these types of bet have historically been offered by the spread betting firms (‘player performance’ indices most obviously) who will not be regulated by the Commission.

It is Betfair’s stance not to offer markets which pose integrity and/or perception concerns for sporting regulators. What might constitute such a market can be established through consultation with the sports and historically Betfair has taken the decision not to offer certain markets after such consultation. Betfair would always advocate a voluntary code of conduct between betting operators and sports governing bodies in this matter.

Restrictions imposed on betting operators in this area by the Commission (or any veto given to the sporting regulators) would obviously put UK licensed operators at a competitive disadvantage against operators not licensed by the Commission. In addition such restrictions would be undermined by the fact that they would not apply to spread betting firms and nor would they apply to betting operators in other EEA States who (pursuant to s.331 of the Act) would be allowed to advertise a betting market into the UK that a UK operator was not allowed to offer.

• Would integrity in sports betting be improved if there was a single source of results for each UK sport and if so, how do you suggest this might operate?

In short, no. The final result of any event is almost always taken from the governing body. The collection, presentation and distribution of sports results is an entire industry in itself. The speed with which results are available has to be balanced by accuracy and Betfair considers the data providers in place now, to be more than adequate. In Betfair’s experience customers do not have concerns with the sources used to settle markets providing the details of those sources are clearly stated within the operator’s rules.

Please let me know if you have any questions or require further clarity in relation to any of the above.

Yours faithfully,

David O’Reilly Legal Counsel

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The UK&#8217-s Gambling Commission is keeping this issue under review. (PDF file)

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

Bet America = Web-based betting on US horse racing

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Via Simon Skinner&#8217-s comment, here&#8230-

Bet America:

BetAmerica.com is an online race wagering service of Lien Games Racing LLC, in association with Horse Race North Dakota, the licensed operator of North Dakota Horse Park. Licensed, based and regulated in the U.S., it offers Advance Deposit Wagering on pari-mutuel horse racing by means of the internet, from a U.S. licensed and regulated company based in North Dakota. We have a proven track record of processing hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers on horse and dog racing. And now we&#8217-re making it even easier to wager with our new internet service.

BetAmerica.com offers Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness wagering content from racetracks across the globe. We make it easy to sign up and be wagering in minutes. We never impose any fees or charges to join, to wager or to watch racing video.

All BetAmerica.com wagers are securely commingled into host track betting pools. All winning wagers are paid at full track odds. Members will have access to instantaneous wagering and bet verification, live audio race calls, dual, multiple-sized live video screens, and live up to date track odds.

BetAmerica.com also offers a 3% cash reward bonus on every wager made on all of the BetAmerica Bonus Tracks. The BetAmerica Bonus Tracks have allowed BetAmerica to promote their tracks by rewarding players for their play.

We&#8217-ll be adding to our website over the coming months and welcome your suggestions for how we can serve you better. So join us, have fun, and good luck at the races!

The BetAmerica.com Team

FAQ:

Who is Bet America?
Bet America is part of Lien Games, a North Dakota land based horse racing company that is licensed and regulated in the United States.

Is it legal to wager in the United States?
Bet America is part of Lien Games, a legal, licensed and regulated company located in the United States. Bet America is in full compliance with all applicable United States and Federal laws.

For a list of state imposed wagering restrictions, please click here.

How do I open an account with Bet America?
Simply go to our SIGN UP NOW page.

What information do I need to provide to open up an account?
You will need to provide your name, social security number, email and residential information.

How long does it take to open an account?
You can be up and wagering within minutes of SIGNING UP.

How much does it cost to become a member of Bet America?
There are no costs to become a member!

Are there any age restrictions to become a member of Bet America?
Yes, only players who are 21 years of age or older may open up an account with Bet America

What tracks are available for wagering on at Bet America?
Most of the top tracks in North America are available for wagering on. Please check our TRACKS page for a complete list of available tracks.

How do I deposit funds into my account?
Once you have signed up, go to our DEPOST page under the ACCOUNT tab and then choose the method of deposit. Bet America offers many convenient ways to deposit funds. Choose your deposit method and then follow the steps in order to fund your account. Please note, all deposits and withdrawls at BetAmerica.com are in US dollars.

How are wagers placed?
Wagers can be placed right up until post time. Wagers are then sent from Bet America into the pari-mutuel wagering pools for the given track. Wagers are then commingled and winners are paid full track odds.

What types of wagers are offered?
Our wagering menu will be virtually identical to the menu provided at the given track.

Are transactions confidential?
Yes, all wagers are confidential.

When will my winnings appear in my account?
Your winning wagers will appear in your account within a few minutes of the official race results being posted at the track.

Is it possible to cancel a wager?
Once a wager is submitted, you may not cancel it.

Can I see a record of my wagers?
Yes, you can see a complete record of your wagers by going to our WAGER HISTORY page.

What happens when a horse that has been scratched is part of my wager?
Depending on the track, your scratched selection may be replaced with the post time favorite or wager refunded. In the event that a track refunds any portion of your wager, it will be immediately reflected in your wagering account.

Are winners paid full track odds?
Yes, winners are paid full track odds on all wagers.

How do I make a withdrawal from my account?
Once you have signed up, to make a withdrawal from your account, go to our WITHDRAW FUNDS page and complete the required steps to withdraw your funds. Please note, all deposits and withdrawls at BetAmerica.com are in US dollars.

If there is a problem with my account, who do I contact?
If you have any problems with your wagering account, please contact our customer support team via our CONTACT page.

What information is Bet America required by law to give to the IRS concerning account activity?
By federal law, any wager which results in proceeds of $600.00 or more must be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), if the amount of such proceeds is at least 300 times as large as the amount wagered. Any wager which results in proceeds of more than $5000.00 is subject to withholding, if the amount of such proceeds is at least 300 times as large as the amount wagered.

Is my personal account information secure?
All personal account information is strictly confidential.

How can I watch the live races?
Click on the VIDEO link at the top of the page and then choose video 1 or video 2 to display the video pop up window. Then select the track you wish to view. You can watch 2 tracks simultaneously.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about p
    rediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.

Pikum is a new kind of betting game that can be played for bragging rights. In each Pikum, you compete with other players to see who can best predict the results of sports or other events. Pikums can be created by anyone, and easily shared online with friends.

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Pikum is a betting game created and played between people online. Players compete to see who can best predict the results of sports and other events. The person or people with the best overall predictions win. Pikum can be played for fun, or money.

SPECIAL ACCESS FOR THE MIDAS ORACLE READERS, HERE.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog.

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BetFair Education

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  1. The navigation is easy &#8212-see the menu on the left-side sidebar.
  2. I encountered only one 404.
  3. They are using Movable Type, and not WordPress, alas.
  4. The list of posts is comprehensive.
  5. They could have integrated their events with Google Calendar &#8212-just like the BetFair FireFox add-on does.
  6. The only bit of criticism I&#8217-d make is that their betting &#8220-knowledge&#8221-, which they want to &#8220-educate&#8221- their traders with, is not based on economic science. I think the next revolution in betting is science-based betting knowledge and science-based betting tips. That&#8217-ll happen outside of BetFair, I guess.

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Both InTrade and NewsFutures are in the process of overhauling their website. We&#8217-ll see within the next weeks what they have to offer.

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HubDubs Nigel Eccles pinches Henry Blodgets nose (like trumpetist Miles Davies did for one of his musicians, on stage, one day), and the damn result of that, believe or not, is that the valuation of The Sporting Exchange (BetFair-TradeFair) drops from $5 billion to $3 billion. So, either Nigel shoul

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Nigel Eccles:

How did you forget yadda yadda yadda. [ Hilarious. :-D ]

Nice list, roughly makes sense but lots to disagree with (as you would expect). However one clear mistake is BetFair. They should be valued at $3 billion. They just did a recapitalisation which distributed 10% of the company in cash to shareholders (I got the check this morning). It was at a valuation of ?1.5 billion, so unless you are even more bearish on the exchange rate that works out at $3 billion.

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Henry Blodget:

Thanks for the info on Betfair&#8211-that&#8217-s exactly the sort of concrete detail we&#8217-re especially looking for. We&#8217-ll see if we can confirm, and, if so, the valuation will drop to $3 billion.

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And there&#8217-s another interesting comment, on the other page:

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Insider:

why the gratuitous &#8212- and painfully ignorant – -swipes at the USA?

can&#8217-t you do your job without the silly &#8212- and, again, factually incorrect &#8212- morals lectureds and editorializing?

actually the U.K. is one of the few countries in the world where online gambling is essentially legal (though the U.K. still hasn&#8217-t sorted out all the laws it is creating to govern online betting)

many EU countries are literally at each others throats about how/when to tax internet gambling (principally because state-run lotteries are specifically carved out of the E.U. free trade agreements)

japan, australia and china have sever and horrible and harsh punishments for internet gambling

of course, pretty much all of the islamic world puts people to death or dismemberment for breaking qu&#8217-ran-ic law – and gambling is totally and utterly forbidden under the qu&#8217-ran

it is you who are &#8220-of arbitrary morals&#8221-. stick to blogging.

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Insider&#8217-s comment sounds informed, but he/she should have avoided the nasty last line.

&#8220-Stick to blogging&#8221- is an insult I was served with, recently, (by a UK-based financial trader), so I can relate. But that&#8217-s never helpful. Educate that blogger, instead. You&#8217-ll get a better ROI, believe me.

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