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Waiting to see the positions of Michael Giberson, Jason Ruspini, Caveat Bettor, Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, etc.
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Free Markets –->- Free Predition Markets
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Excellent formulation by Mike Linksvayer.
Tells a lot about the usage of the prediction market probablities, and how we should market them to people. BetFair, InTrade and TradeSports, are you listening?
I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives me a more accurate and much more concise status update than any amount of time spent reading or watching commentary.
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That was Tom W. Bell, of course. And 5 months after Tom W. Bell’-s pronouncement, HedgeStreet v1 ate the bullet and bellied up.
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Doctor Pennock, isn’-t “-pragmatism”- to take into perspective the hard facts povided by:
Shouldn’-t the “-pragmatists”- draw lessons from all that?
Or will the the “-pragmatists”- ignore the hard facts?
Of, yeah, please, let’-s display “-pragmatism”-.
Back in your court, doc.
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Here’-s Tom W. Bell’-s old take that prediction markets fall outside of the CFTC’-s jurisdiction.
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Let’-s hope that that WSJ columnist is right.
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Another MSM journalist who draws heavily on Koleman Strumpf’-s work and does not cite him, or his colleague (Paul Rhode).
What a shame.
PDF file of the paper on historical prediction markets
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Asks Lucy Vega.
How are you going to get figures, Lucy?
Nigel, what the hell were you doing in Texas??
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Dixit Mike linksvayer, last year.
Once again, Mike Linksvayer is right on target.
This guy is incredibly pertinent.
Mike is one of my best sources of inspiration.
Thanks to his two posts linked above, I’-ll refine an idea of mine I’-ve gotten recently.
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One day, I’-ll offer this vegan some box of foie gras, to thank him. Or maybe frog legs. Or snails. Or cheese that smells like people’-s feet. Or the latest Michel Houellebecq. Or whatever with a French undertone. I’-ll have to show him my appreciation for his indirect help in fertilizing my mind.
Mike Linksvayer’-s little blog
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David Pennock takes a sudden interest in prediction market journalism. Good. (Better late than never.)
My thoughts:
Michael Giberson and Jason Ruspini, what do you think?
Two serious issues.
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ISSUE ONE: The Sporting Exchange forbid any independent order-entry software for the BetFair prediction markets to be used for the other prediction exchanges.
Chris Gibbs:
BinarySoft Chris 22 Apr 17:59
Part of the agreement we signed with Betfair was that our product(s) are not allowed to access other exchanges simultaneously. I’-m considering developing a separate product for the purple place, but I need to be convinced that it’-s worth my time and effort first – realistically it’-s a competitve enough marketplace on Betfair, which itself has around 95% of the betting exchange market.
Also, most of the API vendor software (including mine) would require significant re-design in order to have 2+ copies of the application running simultaneously, without requiring multiple monitors etc.
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My thoughts:
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ISSUE TWO: The Sporting Exchange has output a free order-entry software for the BetFair prediction markets, and the independent providers of order-entry and analysis software packages say it’-s unfair competition to them.
Chris Gibbs:
Betfair should not be releasing free alternatives to products in the Solutions Directory, especially if it’-s the case that they are not subject to the same data request limits as everyone else!
I don’-t feel particularly threatened by Betfair Rapid at present, but Betfair probably have access to more resources (programmers) than all of the API Vendors combined.
Because it’-s not a level playing field:
1) API Vendors pay Betfair ?200/month for full transactional access- the Betfair Rapid developers pay nothing.
2) API Vendors generate revenue by charging users a usage fee- Betfair Rapid can offer the product for free and Betfair benefits from the commission generated by Betfair Rapid users. Betfair also benefits from the commission generated by users of API Vendor software.
Ghetto – I wouldn’-t be surprised if they add more and more features over time, what is there to stop them?
It’-s not ridiculous at all – as explained above, it’-s not a level playing field. Betfair are doing a very good job of alienating their API vendors – I’-ve spoken to other vendors about this and they completely agree.
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My thoughts:
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UPDATE: Here’-s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —-separate the 2 functions.
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