Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)

So far, the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization run by a bunch of delirium-tremens incompetents. – It sounds too European, too French. – Yeah, its too French. – All words and no actions. – Hot air in a golden-painted balloon ready to burst.

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Prediction Market Industry Association&#8217-s goals as stated last year:

1) Create a central, standardized registry of available prediction stocks and contracts from different prediction markets. This open central resource will help demonstrate the wide coverage of available predictions, facilitate search, and make prediction market data more easily available to researchers, the media, and the public at large. Participation will be entirely voluntary, and the program will leave each publisher in complete control of the commercial terms for accessing its data.

2) Offer a directory of its members, a library of core readings, and other such resources enabling newcomers to quickly learn about the field and find their way among the various worldwide offerings.

3) Provide a consensual venue for sharing industry-relevant information and announcements, and organize regular meetings of the industry to discuss common opportunities.

4) Lobby for a clear legal and regulatory environment conducive to the productive adoption of prediction markets by individuals, firms, and governments, and ensuring free access to these markets by traders.

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Reality Check:

  1. Null. No central database. The idea sucks, anyway. As for the &#8220-standard&#8221- prediction markets (a good idea, that one), only InTrade and Reality Markets participate. (NewsFutures is AWOL, even though their CEO heads the PMIA.)
  2. Null. The only resources listing both &#8220-members&#8221- and &#8220-core readings&#8221- of the field of prediction markets is CFM &#8212-as of today.
  3. Null. The best &#8220-venues&#8221- for live discussions on prediction markets are: Koleman Strumpf&#8217-s conference(s), the ACM WorkShops on Prediction Markets, Tim O&#8217-Reilly&#8217-s conferences (Tech:Money, CI Foo Camp, etc.), and the FIA&#8217-s conferences. The other conferences are payola conferences set up by mediocre individuals or organizations who really don&#8217-t care about prediction markets &#8212-but want to make a quick buck riding the prediction market hype.
  4. Null. I&#8217-m more interested in iMEGA and RGA.

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And the PMIA does not get the key individuals: Adam Siegel and Nigel Eccles &#8212-to drop only 2 names.

The Prediction Market Industry Association is an ambulatory joke, so far.

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UPDATE: Deep Throat agrees with me. :-D

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PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE ARRIVED: Bloomberg columnist shames Indias government FOR NOT USING prediction markets to forecast demand.

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WOW. This is big.

Andy Mukherjee:

[…] Finally, demand estimation is too important to be left entirely to experts.

Companies such as Google Inc. are harnessing the power of prediction markets &#8212- which gather information from a large number of participants &#8212- to generate useful forecasts.

There&#8217-s no reason why governments can&#8217-t do the same.

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Great idea.

Let&#8217-s shame the 95% of Fortune-500 companies for not using enterprise prediction markets. :-D

  • Shame on you, McDonald&#8217-s, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • Shame on you, Nike, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • Shame on you, Conquest Capital, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • etc. etc. etc. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Midas Oracle is only 6 times smaller than Fred Wilson’s blog, “A VC”.
  • The best blogs on prediction markets
  • The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”

Did Patri Friedman misread BetFair?

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About the latest New York Times story on BetFair fighting sports corruption&#8230-

Patri Friedman:

Prediction markets not only make fixing easier to profit from, by creating a liquid market for insider betting, but they also make it easier to detect, by creating a centralized database of betting for analysis: […]

So. the effects are mixed, and in the end we are left with the Homer Simpson-esque paradox that prediction markets are both the cause of, and the solution to, insider trading.

Hell, no.

My remarks about his 2 statements:

#2. Sports betting (thru bookmakers and sportsbooks) existed well before the apparition of the prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) &#8212-BetFair was created in 1999 and was launched in 2000, and TradeSports, in 2002.

#1. More money is bet on sports with bookmakers than with prediction exchanges (betting exchanges).

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  1. Match fixing existed before betting.
  2. Profiting from match fixing existed before BetFair and TradeSports.
  3. BetFair is the only betting company in the world that has systematized a cooperation program with sports bodies in order to detect and fight sports corruption.

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The managing editor of CNBC.com asks readers whether they should report what the (play-money and real-money) prediction markets say. He is not that hot on the idea -to say the least. Which is why we should develop a blog network on prediction markets -to get rid of the journalists filter and report

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But the &#8220-gambling&#8221- nature puts some journalists off.

Is it just providing information &#8230- or promoting betting action?

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See, that&#8217-s exactly why I want to develop my &#8220-Midas Oracle Project&#8221-.

Classic journalists and classic bloggers will never treat prediction markets with the maximum sophistication they deserve.

Only brand-new blog networks that will specialize in prediction markets will do a good job.

I&#8217-ll provide more details soon.

I hope that some of you will join this project. It should be a collective endeavor.

E-mail me to join.

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A historical Robin Hanson fanboy cant believe his hero signed Bobs ill-informed and unwise petition.

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Hal Finney:

My concern is that the small stakes limit of $2,000, the limits on who can operate markets, and the limitations on the scope of markets, will lead to spotty coverage which will preclude a robust evaluation of the merits of prediction markets in general. After all, we have intrade.com already which provides spotty coverage of a number of issues – how much more will this add?

Maybe &#8220-gambling can save science&#8220-, but I don&#8217-t see how these steps would show it.

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Proof that you can be &#8220-high IQ&#8221- and still lack judgment (in small ways).

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P.S.: Over that the micro slam above, I have the highest esteem and respect for Robin Hanson &#8212-a prediction market pioneer.

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Prediction Markets & Data Visualization

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Spot that that guy didn&#8217-t say, &#8220-I monitor a prediction market&#8220-. He said, &#8220-I monitor a chart&#8220-.

InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, NewsFutures and HubDub have a huge work to do to improve their charts. In the future, they will output richer charts. Customizable, dynamic, compound charts, with news markers.

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Prediction market journalism should not be practiced by… the prediction market people… but by the vertical experts -with the help of the prediction market people.

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Last Wednesday, I published a post about the Obama-Clinton, with charts from the main prediction exchanges (InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures). Today, I looked into the web stats reports. The post ranks #37 [*] in the list of the most popular pieces published since last Wednesday. In other words, it was an un-popular story. Nobody gives the first fig about Chris Masse writing on US politics.

Political prediction markets should be a tool used by trusted political experts reporting on the horse races and other issues. It&#8217-s in that perspective that I&#8217-m going to mind the future of Midas Oracle.

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[*] Surprisingly, Koleman Strumpf&#8217-s story ranks #5. Not that I&#8217-m jealous. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

Chris Masses pragmatism

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  1. Supporting the development of big, for-profit, generalist prediction exchanges (which get most of their revenues from sports prediction markets)-
  2. Asking the biggest prediction exchanges to organize socially valuable prediction markets.

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Don&#8217-t you rate me as a &#8220-pragmatist&#8221-, doc?

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Hey, mister the pragmatist, how come you never informed the readers of your (otherwise, very smart) blog that CFTC-regulated HedgeStreet bellied after 3 years, burning in vain $24.9 million?

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Wouldn&#8217-t that hard fact (the $24.9 million that disappeared in flames) be worthy of being cited, for the sake of &#8220-pragmatism&#8221-, on a blog written up by a &#8220-pragmatist&#8221-?

So, my good doctor, when is it that you&#8217-re going to tell the truth to your readers?

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UPDATE: See his comment, just below&#8230-

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How VC blogger Paul Kedrosky pumped up HedgeStreet to his gullible readers in 2006, and later failed to update them with the hard fact of its (de facto) bankruptcy. Why telling the truth to readers when its easier to tell them fairy tales?

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Paul Kedrosky was all excited, in April 2006, to tell his gullible readers that HedgeStreet received another round of funding &#8212-adding all up to $24.9 million.

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And just 18 months after Paul Kedrosky&#8217-s pronouncement, HedgeStreet (v1) ate the bullet and bellied up.

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And, of course, Paul Kedrosky has never mentioned to his readers the hard fact that those $24.9 million went up in flames &#8212-creating nothing else than hot air.

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Why bothering with reporting the truth? Let&#8217-s tell blog readers some fairy tales, instead. They swallow.

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