New Kid on the Blog: Nosco.

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Nosco is a Danish company specialized in Prediction Markets. We are very happy to have been given the opportunity to blog here at Midas Oracle.

We will try to keep you all updated on the business of prediction markets in Scandinavia.

A few words about Nosco
Nosco was founded in 2006 by Jesper Krogstrup and Oliver Bernhard Pedersen. We are currently five employees. We use our own custom-designed software, Information Exchange. Among our clients are TV 2 (the largest Danish television channel) and Danske Bank (Scandinavia’s largest bank).

TV 2
In February 2007, the Danish Television channel TV 2|Denmark launched &#8216-Nyhedsspillet&#8216- (The News game). ‘Nyhedsspillet’ is a Prediction Market in news. Our main approach has been to make the user an active part of the news and thereby giving the user a feeling of influence and interaction. In less than 3 months, 21.000 people participated in ‘Nyhedsspillet’.

harry-potter.jpg

By means of RSS, we show all relevant news/articles on a dynamic graph. This provides the participant with a visual timeline of all relevant news. Also, we can automatically push a small graph of the share to all relevant articles.

Danske Bank
Nosco have also designed internal Prediction Markets for the largest banks in Scandinavia. In this case, Prediction Markets are being used to evaluate ideas and to estimate key variables in regards to change management.

Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.

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If there is a 50/50 chance of the epilogue being interpreted as part of the novel (I think it would be higher) and a high chance of a sad epilogue (telling Harry Potter will die after a life well lived), then I don&#8217-t think I would want to be long on survival.

Signed: Deep Throat

Previous blog posts by Deep Throat:

  • Who will write to the CFTC?
  • Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games?
  • Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)
  • IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission’s first pointer.
  • Rumor Mill — Wednesday morning
  • Conference on Prediction Markets
  • How BetFair did treat its customers on the day that the BetFair Starting Price system crashed down

New Fee Structure At TradeSports Causes Confusion.

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[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]

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Tradesports.com (and sister operation, Intrade.com) have long been at the forefront of exchange-based sports wagering and futures markets. In operation since 2002, Tradesports represented the first real exchange open to Americans, long preceding eventual rivals Mansion and Matchbook.

The Tradesports fee structure has long been the subject of player confusion, at least for in-game betting. Previously, trades were subject to trading fees, and the holder of the shares at expiry was also charged expiration fees. Tradesports recently reconfigured their fees to be more in line with other exchanges. The new fee structure calls for a 4% commission to be assessed on the net profit on any market, regardless of the number of individual buy/sell orders placed.

The new fee structure, in general, has met with approval from traders, as it should increase liquidity on in-game betting, a niche market which Tradesports has mostly cornered. The elimination of transaction fees means players won&#8217-t be penalized for actively trading in a market. And while the new commission structure is undercut significantly by Matchbook (charging only 2%), it is generally cheaper for most scenarios than the preceding fee structure at Tradesports.

The previous structure also allowed pre-game trades to occur commission-free. Now all trades, regardless of time placed, will be taxed at the same 4% commission level. Tradesports has given up the big price advantage they had by offering pre-game trades with no commission, one area where they were cheaper than competitors. Perhaps Tradesports is aiming more towards the European market, and trying to undercut BetFair&#8217-s 5% fee. Tradesports has a lot of catching up to do in that market, however, and Tradesports still fails to offer the volume discounts that BetFair does, a big benefit for heavy traders.

One point of controversy is that Tradesports is charging the new commissions on long-term market contracts that were in existence prior to the fee change, and which have been trading under the old rules. This is not the first time Tradesports has retroactively changed fees on markets already trading, having faced similar complaints in November of 2006. Of course, the issue is that an exchange like Tradesports, with markets constantly trading, never has a &#8220-downtime&#8221- to make major changes like reconfiguring fee structures. It is impossible to smoothly transition to new rules in an active market.

Following trader outcry, Tradesports relented and promised to refund the excess fees for any shares that were already traded prior to the implementation of the new commission structure. However, all future trades would be subject to the 4% profit tax, even if the market had been actively trading for months. This prevents traders from trading out of their current positions without suffering the 4% profit tax. While Tradesports did notify their traders of the fee increase a week in advance, the ambiguity regarding whether fees would be applied to pre-game trades as well as to existing contracts was not clarified until after the new fees had gone into effect.

Tradesports could have avoided this confusion quite easily by explaining their position more clearly well before the new fee structure took effect. This would have allowed those who wanted to hold onto their positions to know that they would not be charged higher fees than they expected going into the trade. It would also allow those who did not want to hold their contracts to completion to exit the market prior to the new fee structure. Ideally, Tradesports would have offered traders a few days grace period where they could close existing positions without incurring the new fees, or even offer to buy back or sell outstanding shares to traders at a preset baseline price, to allow them to exit the market.

While hardly a travesty, the transition could have been carried out better. Existing contracts have not lost any value, as long as the current holder holds them until the end. Yes, traders have lost the liquidity that exchange betting brings, but this is a minor glitch in a long-established operation. But to maintain the goodwill of their customers, Tradesports needs to avoid such glitches in the future.

For future rules changes, Tradesports should consider shutting down active markets permanently, with at least a few weeks advance notice. This would allow traders to decide whether they were willing to hold their positions until the end, or whether to get out before the new rule change. For instance, the existing World Series future market could have been closed to further trading as of June 27th. Anyone still holding shares as of a set date would be stuck with them for the duration, when they would be paid out under the old structure. A new World Series market could have been opened immediately, now trading under the new rules. This scenario allows all traders in a given market to participate under the same set of rules, and eliminates the ambiguity that caused trader confusion in the present case. Having both the new and old markets open simultaneously would allow further liquidity, as traders hedged their risk on long-term versus short-term holdings.

More important is the lack of attention this move has received in the online gambling community. This may speak to the fact that Tradesports&#8217- profile in the online gambling arena has diminished significantly in recent years. Outside of some isolated message board posts calling foul for changing prices after bets are made, this topic has received scant attention.

The new fees likely have set Tradesports back significantly in the pre-game betting arena, as they now will offer prices closely in-line with traditional sportsbooks, and will be twice as expensive as closest competitor Matchbook.com. It appears the only real niche Tradesports may have is in-running wagering, as traditional sportsbooks have failed to expand live betting options, and the selection of opportunities at Matchbook is still limited. The new fee structure should provide added liquidity to the in-game markets, and this may become the ultimate niche for Tradesports if they are unable to compete in fees with other exchanges. If Matchbook were to step up their in-game selection, and market liquidity, they might price Tradesports right out of business.

07-11-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani -|at|- majorwager -.- com

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[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]

Betcha.com: On Steamroller Justice and Reports of our Demise

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Yesterday, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ran a story entitled &#8220-Betting web site&#8217-s computers seized.&#8221- Within hours, bloggers and other news outlets picked up the story and translated it into something akin to &#8220-Betcha shut down.&#8221-

Problem: the translation isn&#8217-t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats running roughshod over its citizens turns your stomach, stop reading here.)

What&#8217-s Happening
What happened was this. Last Friday, Betcha&#8217-s attorneys and I met with the state Gambling Commission to address their concerns. They had us drive to their offices in Lacey, WA, about an hour from Betcha&#8217-s offices. The meeting lasted all of about five minutes, with it ending in a deputy commissioner handing us a pre-printed Cease and Desist order. I&#8217-ll attached a PDF copy of it later, but the gist of it was &#8220-shut down or else.&#8221- Why she couldn&#8217-t have told us this over the phone I am not sure &#8212- I suspect it had something to do with making my Friday afternoon a very expensive one. (Tax dollars hard at work.) At almost the exact same moment, Seattle lawyer Lee Rousso was, coincidentally, filing a lawsuit in state court asking the court to declare the state&#8217-s anti-Internet gambling ban unconstitutional. Although the law has previously been criticized on First Amendment grounds [1|2], and the Commission has taken positions in the past that appear pretty tough to square with any notion of free speech (an example), Mr. Rousso&#8217-s challenge is based on the Commerce Clause &#8212- that is, the law seeks to protect the in-state Native American casinos from out-of-state competition, and is therefore unconstitutional.

On Monday, I arrived to the offices early to unlock the doors so the raiders wouldn&#8217-t bust them down. (Not cheap to replace a busted down door.) A few hours later, Commission enforcers, indeed, showed up and took everything. Our books, our posters, my business cards &#8212- everything. (The warrant wasn&#8217-t limited – among other things, it included &#8220-stamps,&#8221- &#8220-printers,&#8221- &#8220-scanners,&#8221- &#8220-jewelry,&#8221- &#8220-envelopes&#8221-, &#8220-napkins&#8221-, &#8220-cardboard coasters&#8221- and &#8220-keys.&#8221-) No one from Betcha was there &#8212- not a good way to start the week, being on the business end of a roving commission. Ironically, my wife stopped by during the raid and chatted up Rick Herrington, the chief Raider (read: head of Commission enforcement.) When my wife asked Mr. Herrington whether they&#8217-d be selling our equipment on eBay, he shrugged his shoulders, as if to say &#8220-maybe yes, maybe no.&#8221- He then told her &#8220-Nick should have come to us first about this.&#8221- This exchange I find revealing: it seems that the Commission is more interested in ruining me and Betcha than anything else. Why? Because we&#8217-re near their turf.

As troubling was how the conversation continued. According to my wife, Mr. Herrington repeated several times &#8220-he&#8217-s breaking the law, he&#8217-s breaking the law.&#8221- When she told him that that was a judge&#8217-s decision, he replied &#8220-doesn&#8217-t matter, he&#8217-s still breaking the law.&#8221- (If that&#8217-s not guilty until proven innocent, I don&#8217-t know what is.)

On Tuesday, we petitioned a state court in Olympia to enjoin the Commission from this &#8220-seize and threaten now, ask questions later&#8221- approach. It almost never happens that a court will enjoin law enforcement from enforcing its version of the law, no matter how warped that version may be. This is an extraordinary remedy and we didn&#8217-t get it yesterday, although it wasn&#8217-t for lack of fantastic work by our lawyer.

The hearing wasn&#8217-t without substantial incident and irony. Apparently, although several people at both the Commission and Attorney General&#8217-s office had been served with our papers via fax, e-mail, and PDF, someone at the Commission did not receive an original copy of one of the documents, as required by the state service statute. As a result, we could not proceed until we could prove someone at the Commission had been served with an original copy of this document. We then had to race across Olympia to the Commission&#8217-s office in a nearby town to serve the one of the Commissioners himself &#8212- personally. (Not a single person in the legal department was working on that glorious 94-degree Tuesday &#8212- go figure.) The irony &#8212- exactitude matters big time to the Commission when it comes to serving paperwork that they already had. But precision in reading a criminal statute that may result in me doing years in the Gray Bar Hotel, not to mention wiping out a fair bit of investor capital and no less than seven years of man work &#8212- nah.

What&#8217-s Next
In terms of next steps, the situation is this. We are pursuing an action to get a court to declare Betcha legal. If the law and/or the Constitution matters in Washington (open question, that), I am confident Betcha will prevail. In the meantime, however, we face a Cease and Desist Order from a Commission that appears hell-bent on destroying Betcha at all costs. We&#8217-re going to review it in detail later today and decide on a course of action. We may have to take the betting-for-money part of the site down until we get on the other side of the steamroller.

You can rest assured, however, about our resolve. The government bureaucracy has been running roughshod over the citizens of this country for far too long. (Check out this book or BoilingFrog.com, among other sites, for some examples.) Prosecutors make up facts, legislators make it a crime to play poker in your own home, bureaucrats rewrite the laws, logic and the dictionary &#8212- and we&#8217-re all left at their mercy. The frog is boiling and the water&#8217-s getting hotter every day. I pledge to the friends and users of Betcha.com that I will do my part to turn the heat down. If that means rotting in jail, so be it.

Cross-posted from the Betcha.com blog

Shifting from stocks to futures

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This article was originally written for the simExchange community to inform them that there will be no weekly IPOs for new game stocks this week.

There will be no stock IPOs on the simExchange for the week of July 9. Part of the reason is to shift trading activity to the futures contracts. As you may have noticed, the simExchange has been emphasizing the futures contracts lately with redesigns to the site.

The reason we have been putting more attention on the futures contracts is that after collaborating with the NPD Group, people in the video game industry, and those who cover it on Wall Street, we have learned that short-term unit sales data is much more relevant to the video game industry. Lifetime global sales are hard to judge and not as informative to the industry because it does not detail when the sales will occur (within a publisher&#8217-s fiscal quarter) and at what price the games will be sold (to forecast revenue). The NPD Group has been very kind to provide us unit sales data to settle our futures contracts to make short-term forecasts possible for the US market.

In the future, we will be using stocks to better judge which games we want to list as futures each month to concentrate trading and provide more accurate forecasts.

This article is cross posted from No IPOs for the week of July 9 on The simExchange Official Blog.

Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004.

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Just thought this might interest some of you:

  • Total volume in 2004 Democratic nomination markets: $5.2 million (data is taken from a talk I gave in San Diego)
  • Volume in 2008 Dem and GOP nomination markets (with 7 months to go before the primaries start): $24 million

Update:

  • CFM asks below whether the higher cumulative volumes on the 2008 contracts just reflect lots of trading in 2005 and early 2006.  I didn&#8217-t have an answer at the time, but if one recalculates the cumulative volume in the nomination markets as of today (10/24/07), it is $30.2 million, up about $6 million from early July.
  • So more volume in the last 3.5 months than in the entire history of the 2004 markets.  Of course, there are two nomination fights this time around, but there are also still months to go before the primaries.
  • This, together with the fact that there are many more political markets on Intrade competing for liquidity, suggests that InTrade&#8217-s politics markets are alive and well.

Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity

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Full disclosure: I trade real money in all markets mentioned.

Both preceding and after the utterly uninformed pronouncements from the past week or so that Hillary was &#8220-the one to beat,&#8221- that she was &#8220-in a league with Tiger Woods and Roger Federer: no. 1,&#8221- the futures markets have voiced a somewhat different opinion.

Hillary, past 120 days:

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Obama, July 6:

obama_jul6.png

There was an unfortunate misperception that Hillary became an overwhelmingly dominant frontrunner on the betting markets, exemplified by the two articles to which I linked. The only time interval in which that was even arguably true was during Obama&#8217-s dip in early June.

Anyway, basically, Obama&#8217-s second-quarter fundraising prowess constitutes the second time in a row in which he&#8217-s demolished the Clintons at their own game. (The meaning of Q1 numbers is much less clear, because lots of politicians, such as John Edwards in 2003 and Mitt Romney in 2007, wrung their personal networks for as much as they possibly could in the first quarter. The second quarter calls for more breadth and depth in one&#8217-s donor base.)

Poll numbers do not mean too much at this point- Joe Lieberman was still winning the Democratic primary at this point in 2003, although nobody took him very seriously. Hillary Clinton has Lieberman-esque name recognition, but her campaign suffers from a yawning enthusiasm gap and a weaker, more reluctant donor network.

From this point on, Obama can expect to be taken at least a little more seriously by the decaying, but still all too relevant MSM. More positive coverage will translate into better poll numbers, which will further undermine Hillary&#8217-s campaign.

With Gore having issued something akin to a &#8220-Sherman statement&#8221- yesterday, and Edwards utterly unable to move the debate beyond the price tag of his last haircut and his own work for the Fortress hedge fund, the Democratic primary is coalescing into a Hillary-Obama slugfest.

TradeSports Cost of Service Charts

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This is a comparison of the new TS fees versus the old fees. It&#8217-s meant to
give a rough idea of where the cost has gone up or down. For simplicity, it
assumes buy-and-hold in all cases, and ignores the unfortunately killed
no-fees-pre-game deal. Still, rough as this is, it should give a sense of
how you&#8217-ll be affected given your trading style, and it may give you ideas
of how to change your style to take advantage.

I hope this was helpful to some of you.
Good luck, trade smart and maximize your advantage!

NPD releases May sales data, Crowd vs Expert compared

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In the third month of trading hybrid futures to predict NPD&#8217-s monthly console sales data, it appears the Crowd is continuing to outperform one of the leading Wall Street analysts. This month, the traders on the simExchange were closer on the sales of four out of five consoles. In March and April, the Crowd was more accurate on seven out of ten predictions. Once again, we compare the aggregate predictions made by everyday gamers and those of the venerable Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan.

US Hardware May 2007

ConsoleActual Sales*The simExchange**ErrorWedbush Morgan***Error
Nintendo DS423K480K+13.48%475K+12.29%
Nintendo Wii338k389K+15.09%400K+18.34%
Sony PlayStation Portable221K177K-19.91%175K-20.81%
Microsoft Xbox 360155k174K+12.26%225K+45.16%
Sony PlayStation 382k77K-6.10%100k+21.95%

How exactly does this work? Gamers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy stocks and futures that under predict sales and short sell stocks and futures that over predict sales. This concept is widely known as &#8220-the Wisdom of the Crowd&#8221- and this system is known as a &#8220-prediction market.&#8221-

The simExchange did not trade monthly hybrid futures for game software this month. However, NPD&#8217-s Top 10 is still relevant for comparing how trading on the simExchange is forecasting lifetime, global sales of the games.

RankTitlePublisherApril Sales*Lifetime Forecast**
1.Pokemon Diamond (DS)Nintendo331.2K19.31M
2.Mario Party 8 (Wii)Nintendo314.4K2.62M
3.Spider-Man 3 (PS2)Activision248.7K1.14M
4.Pokemon Pearl (DS)Nintendo238.0K19.31M
5.Wii Play w/remote (Wii)Nintendo227.4K6.05M
6.Forza Motorsport 2 (Xbox 360)Microsoft217.3K1.89M
7.Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (Xbox 360)Activision183.6K1.30M
8.Spider-Man 3 (Xbox 360)Activision139.8K1.01M
9.Command &amp- Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars (Xbox 360)Electronic Arts137.7K747K
10.Guitar Hero 2 (PS2)Activision130.9K1.62M

Although data is still limited, initial predictions on the simExchange video game prediction market appear to be relatively accurate (compared with traditional predictors), and in some cases, absolutely accurate (compared with the actual result).

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).

If you enjoyed this post, please consider Digging it through the original: NPD releases May sales data, Crowd vs Expert compared on the The simExchange Official Blog.

* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** GameDaily Biz, June 11, 2007