The List Of The Last 1,000 Midas Oracle Posts

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• Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex — [VIDEO]
• PredictWise — [LINK]
• Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]
• ‘For Liberty’, the Ron Paul film — [VIDEO]
• InTrade prediction markets on US debt ceiling — [CHARTS]
• Ron Paul: “Is gold money?” –> Ben Bernanke: “No. It’s precious metal. It’s an asset.” –> Ron Paul: “Why do central banks hold it?” –> Ben Bernanke: “Long-term tradition.” — [VIDEO]
• After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]
• Matt Taibbi vs. Goldman Sachs — [VIDEO]
• Our dwindling food variety — [CHART]
• That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]
• The Truth About Democracy — [VIDEO]
• Ex-NewsFutures Emile Servan-Schreiber’s father tried (unsuccessfully) to get François Mitterrand to grant French citizenship to Steve Jobs. — [SCOOP]
• How magicians use psychological principles to create magic — [VIDEO]
• Innovating with pollens — [VIDEO]
• “What’s interesting is that Apple is often credited with pioneering categories that they didn’t originate, but perfected.” — [LINK]
• How labels screw musicians — [VIDEO]
• Is there a sixth sense? — [VIDEO]
• The crisis of meaning of the prediction markets — [HYPE CYCLE]
• How Apple manages its suppliers of electronics — [ANALYSIS]
• Samsung’s electronic campus is the size of a small city. — [VIDEO]
• US worse than Greece? — [VIDEO]
• No that many InTrade traders paid tribute to CEO John Delaney (whose corps remains on Mount Everest). — [LINK]
• Ex-HSX Max Keiser speaks to lawyers in Athens, Greece, about lawsuits (and hangings) against Goldman Sachs. — [VIDEO]
• Jean-Michel Jarre’s 2011 concert at Monaco was the most innovative gig on Earth (lasers, synchronized fireworks, colored lightning on white smokes, etc.). — [VIDEO]
• Collaborate to Innovate — [VIDEO]
• Defkalion is the company that will produce energy using Andrea Rossi’s Ni-H cold fusion technology (LENR, E-Cat). — [VIDEO]
• Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]
• BetFair loses CEO, buys back shares… and increases premium charges on big traders. — [LINK]
• Iceland shows defaulters are forgiven. — [LINK]
• Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]
• Internet “non-gambling” in D.C. — [LINK]
• The Five Dysfunctions of Leadership — [BOOK]
• Google+ is just another Google Wave: Cool, but too complex. — [LINK]
• Terry Gilliam’s Lost in La Mancha — [VIDEO]
• Bloomberg TV profiles Charles and David Koch. — [VIDEO]
• Cold fusion scientist publishes harsh criticism of Andrea Rossi’s approach. — [VIDEO + LINK]
• Mike Giberson is so obsessed with shale gas that he unconsciously refuses to see the Ni-H cold fusion revolution. — [LINK]
• Robin Hanson’s friend (from the NASA era) wants to mine the Moon. — [VIDEO]
• Edward Bernays: Propaganda — [VIDEO]
• The Greek crisis is the crisis of the Euro. — [VIDEO]
• The wreck that is Google — [LINK]
• What would you tell a generation living 1,000 years from now about the life you’ve lived and the lessons you’ve learned? — [VIDEO]
• EuroCopter X3: High-speed winged helicopter — [VIDEO]
• Will BetFair CEO David Yu exit? — [LINK]
• Energy-efficient water electrolysis could open the way to mass produce hydrogen at a cheap cost, and reduce global dependence on fossil energy like oil and natural gas. — [VIDEO]
• Steve Keen about the debt crisis and Minsky’s moment — [VIDEO]
• There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [LINK]
• List of useful iPhone / iPad apps — [LINK]
• “Rude and denigrating” free speech against Islam, “on the edge of what is allowed”, is officially allowed in Holland (the Netherlands). — [NEWS + VIDEO]
• Nobel Laureate Brian Josephson (Emeritus Professor of Physics at Cambridge University) is highly interested in Andrea Rossi’s Ni+H nuclear reactor (the E-Cat). — [VIDEO]
• By printing money, the earnings power of the proletariat is diminishing, while the assets held by the wealthy are going up. And at the same time, the wealthy are outsourcing more and more production to China, to further rob the masses. — [VIDEO]
• Bruce Bartlett on taxes — [VIDEO]
• FreedomFest, Las Vegas — July 14 to July 16 — [EVENT]
• American citizens and its universities have experienced an ivy-laden ivory tower for the past half century. Students, however, can no longer assume that a four year degree will be the golden ticket to a good job in a global economy that cares little for their social networking skills and more about what their labor is worth on the global marketplace. — [LINK]
• Apple’s Genius Bar: full loyalty, no negativity — [SECRET DOCUMENTS]
• Many students believe that it is moral to confiscate money from hard-working Americans and entrepreneurs and give it to those who didn’t earn it, yet don’t support the same philosophy when it is applied to their GPA scores. — [VIDEO]
• Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures fame) says the last goodbye to his bro (an anti-cancer food expert who is fighting brain cancer, again). — [VIDEO]
• CONFIRMATION: John Delaney’s behavior was irrational. — [LINK]
• Building a dinosaur from a chicken — [VIDEO]
• Norman Gary Finkelstein makes sense. — [VIDEO]
• Lawrence O’Donnell pulverizes Donald Trump into fine particles, once again. — [VIDEO]
• How to identify promising startup companies — [VIDEO]
• IMPRESSIVE: KickStarter is now used to start up big projects. — [VIDEO]
• MoneyBall — [VIDEO]
• How do you protect a good idea? — [VIDEO]
• Dominique Strauss-Khan’s donkey — [HUMOR]
• Political prediction markets are good for your mental health. — [LINK]
• Anti-cancer food expert David Servan-Schreiber is fighting brain cancer, again. — [LINK]
• COLD FUSION: Brian Ahern is getting some success replicating Rossi and Focardi. — [LINK]
• Bubble phases – (e.g., tulip mania, dot-com bubble, prediction market bubble) — [CHART]
• There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [VIDEO]
• FORECASTING THE ECONOMY: Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics — [VIDEO]
• There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [NEW TECH]
• Peter Thiel @ Bilderberg 2011 — [LISTING]
• Remote-controled helicopter, in a sphere — [VIDEO]
• Cave of Forgotten Dreams — [VIDEO]
• Freedom ranking of US states — [MAP]
• Saving ocean fisheries with property rights — [VIDEO]
• Steve Jobs at Apple’s WWDC 2011 — [VIDEO]
• Steve Blank: Of course, we are in a bubble, but it’s not a bad thing. — [VIDEO]
• Machine learning is using a computer to recognize patterns in data, to then make predictions about new data, based the patterned recognized or learned from prior chosen training dataset. — [LINK]
• Let’s build a portable nuclear reactor, folks. {*} — [VIDEO]
• The Greeks sacrificed on the altar of the Euro? — [VIDEO]
• The hotel maids are leading the revolt against the world oligarchy. — [VIDEO]
• Nuclear energy is finished. Done. — [VIDEO]
• GroupOn is a lemon. — [LINKS]
• The US Federal Reserve “does not own any gold at all.” … “What appears on our balance sheet is gold certificates.” … — [VIDEO]
• Who said the French press does not publish anything about the French politicians’ sex life? — [DOCUMENT]
• The Belo Monte dam project in the Amazon rainforest has been OK’ed. — [VIDEO]
• Midas Oracle’s stats about John Delaney’s death. — [ANALYTICS]
• NASA’s Langley Research Center scientists are investigating low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR), which is sometimes labeled “cold fusion”. — [PODCAST]
• The BetFair exodus continues. — [LINK]
• Unbound, a kind of KickStarter for books (or e-books) — [VIDEO]
• To get news on the E-cat, come here on Midas Oracle. To get news on CFTC rulings, go to Knowledge Problem. — [IRONY]
• John Delaney Obituary — [LINKS]
• Wanna leave for Silicon Valley? — [VIDEO]
• 6 days later, the NYT on John Delaney’s death. — [NEWS]
• Tyler Cowen on the technology-based economic expansion — [VIDEO]
• Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in an earthquake that struck the city of L’Aquila on 6 April 2009. — [NEWS]
• Peter Thiel gives $100k to twenty-something kids just out of college. — [NEWS]
• Steven Levy is interviewed by Matt Cutts at GooglePlex in Mountain View. — [VIDEO]
• Psychologist and economist George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon University, was an avid mountain climber “until I had kids and couldn’t tolerate the risk.” — [TAKEAWAYS]
• InTrade CEO John Delaney (42) died on May 21, 2011, while climbing Mount Everest, and his body will remain there. — [OBITUARY]
• Meet the masters of collective intelligence. — [VIDEO]
• Rand Paul makes sense everytime he speaks. — [VIDEO]
• BetFair employees believe that David Yu and the other top brass are a bunch of schmucks who are incapable of delivering leadership. — [NEWS]
• Political Forecasting by Pundits — [VIDEO]
• Eurocopter – X3 Hybrid Helicopter Demonstrator Achieving To Exceed 220 Knots (407 Km/h)
• Tyler Cowen, proven wrong on PBS? — [VIDEO]
• FaceBook acts as a de facto information gathering source for US intelligence agencies such as NSA, CIA and FBI. — [VIDEO]
• Emmanuel Todd predicted the Arab Spring by looking at demo data. — [VIDEO IN FRENCH]
• Bernard Henry-Lévy is a pretentious clown who is 10 times the national embarrassment to France than Dominique Strauss-Kahn ever is. — [RANT]
• InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s life. — [PREDICTION MARKET]
• Cold fusion reactors are coming to America, so US energy economists (like Michael Giberson) cannot ignore LENR anymore. — [NEWS]
• Conspicacy theory (involving credit cards) about coffee futures — [VIDEO]
• The right way to deal with invaders — [AUSSIE RULES]
• Thomas Malone’s collective intelligence is an abyssal hodgepodge… “à la Prévert”. — [LINK]
• Friday, the 13th — [HUMOR]
• The 2009 takedown of Jim Cramer by John Stewart — [VIDEO]
• Why accountants don’t run start-ups — [VIDEO]
• Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]
• Frac gas exploitation pollutes drinking water. — [PAPER]
• Is research scientist David Pennock easily impressed? — [TEST IT FOR YOURSELF]
• Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]
• The science of the Nickel-Hydrogen cold fusion reactor — [VIDEO]
• The ‘carrot and stick’ approach has been oversold. — [VIDEO]
• InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]
• InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]
• Grandson of famed economist Milton Friedman is sued for downloading porn over the Internet. — [LINK]
• Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat is a cold fusion reactor able to convert few grams of nickel powder and a small amount of high pressure hydrogen into heat for many months. — [VIDEO]
• Tyler Cowen’s The Great Stagnation — [REVIEW]
• The Great Ephemeralization — [LINK]
• Thomas Malone gives a bad name to collective intelligence. — [RANT]
• InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
• British electors don’t want to change their electoral system. — [PREDICTION MARKET]
• The global environment mantra is the elites’s brand-new tool to alienate the people. — [VIDEO]
• The Bridge To No-Where — [PICTURE]
• Apple will eventually be worth more than $1 trillion ($1,000 per share). — [VIDEO]
• Andrea Rossi’s cheap nuclear energy generator — [VIDEO]
• An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media — [PAPER]
• We were lied to, of course. — [LINK]
• QualiQuanti’s Daniel Bô misunderstands collective intelligence. — [REBUTTAL]
• Daryl Bem’s retrocausality paper discussed at Harvard — [VIDEO]
• Why you should never trust John Battelle’s opinion on tech — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
• U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]
• Cold Fusion Prediction Markets — [HISTORY]
• Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (E-cat) — [LINKS]
• Yacouba Sawadogo, the man who stopped the desert — [VIDEO]
• On The Use of Prediction Markets in Information Security (CIA’s In-Q-Tel) — [LINK]
• Cantor Gaming’s betting tablet shall stay in Las Vegas. — [REVIEW]
• Robin Hanson’s couple vs. Justin Wolfers’ s couple — [CONTRAST]
• Energy Catalyzer (E-cat) = a cold fusion reactor that produces energy inputting hydrogen and nickel (and outputting copper) — [NEW TECH]
• China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016. — [CHART]
• Larry Page’s Google — [VIDEO]
• Apple is *NOT* collecting your iPhone’s geo data. — [DEBUNKING]
• The prediction market ideology still lives on. — [COMMENT]
• A city that outsources everything (but police and fire service) — [VIDEO]
• Tax Me If You Can – (Tax Havens) — [VIDEO]
• Bryan Caplan on kids and parenting — [VIDEO]
• Wall Street does not give credit to Google for Android. — [CHARTS]
• Paul Allen on 60 Minutes — [VIDEO]
• Prediction markets shall stay dwarf. — [APPLIED LOGIC]
• David Pennock agrees that snubbing BetFair was a mistake. — [COMMENT]
• Could the FBI seize InTrade’s domain name and kill the real-money prediction markets? — [SOLUTION]
• Should the Goldman Sachs people be sent behind bars? — [VIDEO]
• Did the prediction market industry fail because of the lack of usability of the prediction markets? — [REBUTTAL]
• Regulators will become co-opted by a conflict of interest … AND/OR … Regulators are ignorant of the institutions they are charged with controlling. — [VIDEO]
• Why you should stay away from Android — [VIDEO]
• CIA now know InTrade’s prediction markets were not useful in assessing Fukushima. — [SCREENSHOT]
• David Pennock on the state of the prediction market industry — [LINK]
• SecondMarket and SharesPost — [LINK]
• Media Predict Real-Money — [LINK]
• The difference between making sense of things and predicting things is where we run into trouble. — [LINK]
• InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
• Making predictions with BeanSight — [LINKS]
• Fred Wilson misunderstands Apple’s dynamics… very badly. — [CHART]
• Forests — [VIDEO]
• The Internet in Society: Empowering or Censoring Citizens? — [VIDEO]
• Predicting the monthly releases of 10 major U.S. economic indicators — [VIDEO]
• Areva’s analysis of the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident — [SLIDES]
• Steve Wozniak at ACU conf — [VIDEO]
• BetFair news — [LINKS]
• On Twitter, BetFair wins hands down over InTrade. — [SCREENSHOT]
• Beware thinkers who make their points using metaphors — [REBUTTAL]
• Steve Randy Waldman wants to create a bloggers’ think tank. — [IDEA]
• How does an upward trend impacts the novelty effect? — [STRATEGIC MARKETING]
• Italian soccer story shows why over-focusing on betting is the wrong way to address potential corruption in sport. — [LINK]
• Kauffman Economics Bloggers Forum — [WEBCAST]
• Midas Oracle’s April Fools 2011 — [HUMOR]
• Cryptome (a kind of WikiLeaks) publishes 10 photos of the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant. — [PHOTOS]
• Pepsi invested heavily in so-called “social media” while de-investing in traditional advertising. — [ANALYSIS]
• Are citations in science journals reflecting serious, genuine and productive R&D? — [CHART]
• MicroSoft stole BetFair’s marketing idea. — [PHOTO]
• The future belongs to hedge funds — [LINK]
• Paul Allen on Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer during MicroSoft’s inception — [LINK]
• We have become a nation of beggars. — [VIDEO]
• What China is doing with all that copper… — [LINK]
• 2 academic sites worth bookmarking — [LINKS]
• Human Achievement Hour 2011 — [VIDEO]
• China’s ghost cities — [VIDEO]
• Areva’s analysis on Fukushima — [SLIDES]
• Very few women have made History. — [LINK]
• The Kochs… have virtue. — [LINK]
• Fake marriages on the rise in Great Britain (and in other developed countries) — [VIDEO]
• The user interface of this iPad app is hyper brillant. — [VIDEO]
• Niall Ferguson gives a historical perspective on the current financial crisis. — [VIDEO]
• BetTornado is the first sports trading app for the iPad. –> It connects to BetFair though their API. — [SCREENSHOTS]
• Shutdown threat for BetFair as Italian regulator takes tough line on licences — [LINK]
• Prediction Markets at AMMA 2011 — [LINK]
• David Pennock on Predictalot — [LINK]
• Christchurch, New Zealand, as the 2011 quake hits — [INCREDIBLE PICTURE]
• BBC on France, the French, French politics, and Nicolas Sarkozy — [VIDEO]
• Freedom ends when it comes to criticizing Islam. — [VIDEO]
• I do not trust John Battelle. And I don’t need to know what my “friends” are doing near the spots I visit. — [RANT]
• The W.P. Carey School researchers proved that prediction markets could work as a model-selection tool… — [LINK]
• The Android operating system is rotten to the core. — [INFOGRAPHIC]
• Ian Ayres: Unlocking the power of incentives — [VIDEO]
• New York Times is going to fail, big time. — [CHART]
• Excellence and secrecy form the basis of Apple’s innovation culture. — [VIDEO]
• Answer to Robin Hanson about solar innovation — [REBUTTAL]
• Bloomberg Game Changers: Marc Andreessen — [VIDEO]
• Paris, Barcelona, Berlin, St. Petersbourg, Shanghai, Tokyo, New York and London — [VIDEO]
• Nick Denton of Gawker Media about their website redesign — [VIDEO]
• I enjoyed so much LeR3 and BarCamp Sophia-Antipolis. — [THANK-YOU NOTE]
• Japanese nuclear disaster and Japanese press coverage — [TRUTH SOCIOLOGY]
• Midas Oracle receives hundreds of visits per day. — [SCREENCHOT]
• Consumers in the U.S. will soon be able to receive and send funds to any eligible Visa credit, debit or prepaid account, anywhere in the world. — [NEWS]
• The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 6 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
• PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]
• Is there really something “racist” in this rant? — [VIDEO]
• The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Watch the English-speaking NHK for the latest on the Japanese nuclear disaster. — [VIDEO]
• Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]
• Markets can be designed to protect Mother Nature. — [VIDEO]
• Are you more truthful when you are anonymous? — [VIDEO]
• Inside the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Dominique Strauss-Kahn (“DSK”) — [VIDEO]
• Steve Blank: The Democratization of Entrepreneurship — [VIDEO]
• Paul Graham: If you have some kind of big visionary plan, you’re probably Webvan. — [VIDEO]
• Justin Wolfers and his wife — [RANT AGAINST FEMINIZATION]
• Idiots believe in earthquake prediction markets. — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]
• 100% Pure Cockiness — [EVIDENCE]
• What’s up with Emile Servan-Schreiber? — [LINK]
• PAUL GRAHAM ON THE APPLE MONOPOLY: “Doesn’t Steve Jobs see that he’s the mean dictator in that old Apple ad?” — [REBUTTAL]
• iOS devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) will *never* allow scripts. — [PREDICTION]
• Paul Graham: Startups use technology to make technology. — [VIDEO]
• Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]
• Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]
• A good prank in a museum — [VIDEO]
• On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]
• The United States of America is broke. – [VIDEO]
• Islam threatens free speech in Europe. — [VIDEO]
• On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]
• Nassim Taleb on deficits – [VIDEO]
• Galloping North-American Buffalo – [IMAGES]
• Don’t buy the Motorola Xoom: It is clunky. – [REVIEW]
• Getting rid of inequality = Getting rid of risks and startups – [VIDEO]
• Why the New Jersey governor vetoed the Internet gambling bill – [REPORT]
• Michael Lewis on March 2009′s 60 Minutes – [VIDEO]
• I support the Kochs. – [LINK]
• Why does nobody trade the iPad prediction markets at InTrade? – [QUESTION]
• iPad 2 – [VIDEO]
• Albert of Monaco = Pinocchio – [ART]
• Rand Paul on David Letterman – [VIDEO]
• There is a bank run in South Korea right now. – [VIDEO]
• Tapping prediction markets for foresight – [PAPER]
• Ex-BetFair Mark Davies does not wear a tie anymore. – [VIDEO]
• $42 million invested in WeatherBill – [P.R.]
• American Civics Exchange – [STEALTH MODE]
• Odds Futures – [LINK]
• Knew The News – [LINK]
• The Oscars 2011 & The Prediction Markets – [POST-MORTEM]
• Fashion designer John Galliano is indeed a hard-core anti-semite. – [VIDEO]
• BetFair Casino’s promotion “had not been administered fairly”. – [JUDGMENT]
• The Anonymous = a great case of collective intelligence. – [REPORT]
• Are prediction markets useful? – [ANALYSIS]
• InTrade’s website redesign – [QUESTION]
• Horace Dediu, smartphone market analyst – [PORTRAIT]
• Simon Johnson says that the 2008 banking crisis was “private-sector driven”. – [VIDEO]
• iPad stats – [REPORT]
• Justin Wolfers didn’t inform the Freakonomics readers about InTrade’s mistake related to the contract statements of the ‘dictator departure markets’. – [RANT]
• Midas Oracle is number one at Google for the Gadaffi search, above InTrade and Inkling. – [SNAPSHOT]
• Arab Revolt Prediction Markets – {Predictions for next Arab country to revolt} – {Which country is the next ‘domino’?} – {What will happen in the Middle East & Northern Africa?} – [PREDICTION MARKET CHARTS]
• Transitioning from 16-bit digital music to 24-bit digital music – [ADVANCED REPORT]
• Soccer match fixing in Turkey – [AUDIO]
• Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, speaks about “Predicting the Present with Search Engine Data”. – [VIDEO]
• Robin Hanson’s prediction market hallucination is part of John Stossel’s dreamed libertarian paradise. – [VIDEO]
• What WikiLeaks has told us: Great abuses of power, corruption, lies, and war crimes. – [ANALYSIS]
• InTrade’s Brand-New Rules for Departure Markets – [MARKET CONTRACT STATEMENTS]
• Winklevoss Syndrome = the false belief that an idea is ownable and that the real value of a business is strongly linked to the idea. – [ANALYSIS]
• The Motley Fool = a bad predictor – [IDIOTS MASQUERADING AS FINANCIAL ANALYSTS]
• IBM researchers discuss the technology behind Watson, the language-parsing machine that recently beat two of the world’s best players in Jeopardy. – [VIDEO]
• Peter Thiel: The wisdom of crowds has been very overated. If you’re libertarian, you should be skeptical of the wisdom of crowds. – [SHOTGUN ANALYSIS]
• Are we suffering from a lack of innovation? – [VIDEO]
• Robin Hanson’s prediction markets on FOX Business’s John Stossel – [VIDEO]
• 2011 Q1′s economic blogger survey – [POLL]
• InTrade took ample time to settle the (redux) Mubarak contracts. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Ex-BetFair Mark Davies’s website has been assigned a PageRank of zero by Google. Why? – [QUESTION]
• BOOKMAKER ODDS: Next country to topple leader. – [FORECASTS]
• Does Apple deserve a 30% cut of iTunes in-app subscriptions? – [ANALYSIS]
• Debunking Michael Lewis’ The Big Short – [ANALYSIS]
• How big is the U.S. debt? – [VIDEO]
• How the US government screws the NFL – [VIDEO]
• PRECOGNITION PAPER: Daryl Bem et al. respond to Wagenmakers et al. – [BAYESIAN STUFF]
• Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the constitutionality of Barak Obama’s health care law – [VIDEO]
• The saga continues… Prince Albert II of Monaco sues his former US spymaster, Robert Eringer, over his blogging. – [THE TRUTH WILL PREVAIL.]
• US-wiretapping of Russia via Sweden – [VIDEO]
• In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. – [REPORT]
• Why Adam Siegel’s CityPosh won’t take off – [PREDICTION]
• InTrade traders are predicting that Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Peter Thiel makes fun of Warren Buffett’s dated investing. – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel on banned sport betting – [VIDEO]
• 2 PDFs from the Kauffman Foundation – [STUDIES]
• InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. – {Mubarak Market Unwound} – [VICTORY]
• Internet-based encyclopedia Wikipedia is 10 years old. – [VIDEO]
• You need the f*c*i**g Flash technology to see the Google Art Project. – [RANT]
• The InTrade ‘Mubarak Departure’ scandal is on top of Google Blog Search. – [SCREENSHOT]
• InTrade try to clean up the mess, without acknowledging their mistake. – [OPINION]
• Apple vs. Amazon – [BUSINESS MODELS]
• Elon Musk on Tesla Motors – [VIDEO]
• Brad Pitt bought the movie rights for Michael Lewis’s The Big Short. – [VIDEO]
• 30% of transactions done via an app go to Apple. –> Is that too much? – [DEBUNKING]
• Why medical doctors *LOVE* Epocrates on their iPhone and iPad – [VIDEO]
• The liberation of the Arab countries will ultimately lead to a war with Israel. – [PREDICTION]
• Big trader furious at how InTrade settled the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction markets (even though the Egyptian dictator is still in power, at publication time) is suing their pants off using the German justice system as a springboard to get these Irish morons (namely John Delaney and Carl Wolfenden) to reckon their mistake. – [QUOTES]
• My first impression of The Daily (on the iPad) is quite positive. – [VIDEO]
• InTrade has just settled their ‘Mubarak Departure’ contracts (even though the Egyptian dictator is still at the helm of the country, at publication time). – #controversy – [CHARTS]
• Under Larry Page’s helm, Google are finally getting to the realization that they have to code more iPhone / iPad apps.
• UK-based Cella Energy has developed a synthetic fuel that could lead to US$1.50 per gallon gasoline. (And there’s no carbon emission, as the fuel is made of hydrogen.)
• Blog commenters should be selected.
• Conservative money is bad, and linked to greed, while liberal money is self-evidently philanthropic.
• Digitalizing the US intelligence community – [VIDEO]
• Hi Robin, can you list some innovations and inventions that have originated in the emerging world and cannot fairly be called “copying”? I am frankly having trouble.
• Burton Malkiel on the theory of efficient markets and index funds. – [VIDEO]
• Watch this one-minute video: Egyptian protesters film themselves with their smartphones, and then upload to YouTube. Who needs the traditional mass media, anymore? – [VIDEO]
• Right brain, left brain – [VIDEO]
• Why there might be something to Daryl Bem’s precognition paper – [VIDEO]
• Ron Conway, the one and only – [VIDEO]
• Why GroupOn is a fad – [VIDEO]
• When is “censorship” on Wikipedia entries acceptable? – [VIDEO]
• Red means Jason Ruspini and David Pennock should rent as opposed to buy. – [CHART]
• Education is a bubble in a classic sense. To call something a bubble, it must be overpriced and there must be an intense belief in it.
• CrowdPark = social betting – [VIDEO]
• Why Tim Cook left Compaq in 1998 for Apple, even though it made little sense on paper (at the time, Apple was almost broke): He trusted his intuition just after five minutes into his interview with Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who can be very convincing when he hires. – [VIDEO]
• Besides search, Google hasn’t had any mutant ideas, lately.
• The 2010 Global Warming Exchange has been closed.
• Trading on Inkling’s prediction markets – [VIDEO]
• Welcome to the new Midas Oracle subscribers…
• Amateurish financial forecasters beat Wall Street financial analysts.
• Wall Street analysts’s view is too short term.
• “Don’t hold focus groups and ask people what they think.”
• 2010 –> IBM was granted 5,896 patents. –> Apple was granted 563 patents.
• The story behind the meteoric rise of the ARM stock – [CHART]
• Steven Johnson on KickStarter – [VIDEO]
• U.S. futures regulators issued draft proposals to curb speculative trading in commodities, despite concerns that the regulators lack enough market data.
• Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.
• Steve Wozniak looks forward to the iPhone 4G LTE. – [VIDEO]
• The New York Times readers generate hundreds of (smart) comments about Daryl Bem’s precognition paper.
• Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.
• Best Picture: The Social – [VIDEO]
• Sarah Palin’s InTrade probabilistic probability… after the Tucson shooting – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Both WikiLeaks and Sea Shepperd are at war. I support both of them. And you should too. – [VIDEO + PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Too Late
• 10 business models of 2010 – [PRESENTATION]
• 10 Questions for Elon Musk – [VIDEO]
• This guy invented the cell phone. Here’s how. – [VIDEO]
• Julian Assange to be indicted for a federal crime in the United States? – [VIDEO]
• How did liberty fare in 2010? – [VIDEO]
• Only decerebrated idiots pay attention to John Battelle’s predictions.
• Only decerebrated idiots pay attention to Forrester Research’s reports.
• How Steven Johnson writes his essays / papers / articles / books… – [VIDEO]
• Why you should discard reports about Android sales… –> It’s the usage that counts, not the sales. – [CHART]
• Twitter’s Jack Dorsey – [VIDEO]
• Robin Hanson on Singularity
• Invention vs. Innovation — Idea vs. Execution
• The Best Economics Blogs
• Julian Assange interviewed by John Pilger – [VIDEO]
• The contract is designed so that it is almost impossible not to break the Google rules.
• Barack Obama re-election prediction market – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
• Apple will be the number one platform for a long time from a developer perspective, they have gotten so many things right. And they know what they are doing and they call the shots.
• John Tierney won a $5,000 bet with Matthew Simmons.
• Sometimes, hard work doesn’t necessarily equal success. – [VIDEO]
• New York cultural periodical the Village Voice has named @discographies, an anonymous Twitter account that publishes 140-character reviews of the life work of musicians and bands, as its music critic of the year.
• A great website with plenty of videos about art
• Circumcision of babies should be forbidden by law. – [VIDEO]
• 10 questions for Ray Kurzweil – [VIDEO]
• Julian Assange: “Sweden is the Saudi Arabia of feminism.”
• New Caledonia – [VIDEO]
• Why Tyler Cowen is wrong to be skeptical of Daryl Bem’s precognition paper.
• Cantor Gaming
• Keynes vs. Hayek on Central Banks
• Steve Wozniak talks about the open Internet and net neutrality at the FCC. – [VIDEO]
• Ray Kurzweil’s analysis of his own predictions is 146 pages long and uses the word “wrong” 10 times and the word “error” 2 times.
• The agenda of the gay politicans in the US Congress – [VIDEO]
• 3 links
• John F. Kennedy (a.k.a. JFK) on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
• J. Edgar Hoover asked the FBI to track Josephine Baker’s movements around the world because of a row she had in a NYC restaurant with a columnist who was Hoover’s best friend. – [VIDEO]
• Fixed-Odds Betting Arbitrage
• Can you imagine apps for the Apple TV?
• A presentiment experiment done by Dean Radin, where the eye movement and pupil dilation of a subject are measured when she is looking at random calm or emotional pictures on a monitor. – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel: Top 10 politicians’s promises gone wrong – [VIDEO]
• The Internet is full of harsh stories about BetFair “robbing” casino players over November’s “Happy Hour” promotion. – [VIDEO]
• Prediction Markets (in blue) vs. Forecasting (in red) – [CHART]
• Jeremy Levine’s StarStreet on CNN – [VIDEO]
• Yossi Vardi’s version of the Wisdom Of Crowds – [VIDEO]
• Did KickStarter just killed the angel investors?
• Tesla Motors’s stock: +30% since Jim Cramer dissed it on CNBC. – [VIDEO]
• Nassim Taleb says we will have soon another crisis that will make the current one looks like a picnic. – [VIDEO]
• The abrupt closing of Yahoo’s Delicious and Google Wave sends a chilling message to users:
• Gold and Real Interest Rates
• If you need to contact me…
• Betting @ BetFair remains a mediocre-quality publication —triple alas.
• Entrepreneurs are more born than made. – [VIDEO]
• Apples iPhone actually added $1.9 billion to the U.S. trade deficit with China last year.
• The third result for “jew” on Google Search leads to an anti-semitic website. – [VIDEO]
• Steve Blank is caught red-hand browsing the NASA, Drudge Report and Google News websites instead of listening to public comment during the California Coastal Commission session. – [VIDEO]
• End the Fed – by Ron Paul – [VIDEO]
• Jim Rogers on Ben Bernanke… –and it’s not pretty. – [VIDEO]
• 3 links for this Wednesday nite
• iPhone Patriot App
• Cliff Lee’s shocking choice to take less money and join the Philadelphia Phillies surprised the InTrade traders, too.
• Do we really need an X Prize for that? – [VIDEO]
• Michael Moore is a damn socialist, but he is also a great social freedom fighter. – [VIDEO]
• Analysts value the BetFair business at anywhere between £4.45 and £16 a share. Four out of five independent brokers rate the shares a ‘SELL’.
• Artificial Intelligence… with a “G” inside
• Predictive Modeling for Businesses
• The doctrine that the world is made up of objects whose existence is independent of human consciousness turns out to be in conflict with quantum mechanics and with facts established by experiment.
• The next time you read a futuristic prediction (or write one), ask yourself if it has fallen prey to one of these missteps:
• InTrade are removing all trading and expiry fees.
• TV documentary on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
• A Rebel Without A Cause
• Peter Thiel: Funding intensive technologies means accepting weird, strange, and singular, ideas. – [VIDEO]
• For now, in most cases, companies should still focus their development efforts on Apple’s iOS first, with Android second.
• How do you value art? ArtPrice builds up the extensive database for you. – [VIDEO]
• Alison Balsom – Italian Concertos – [VIDEO]
• If a woman is a bitch, or hysterical, or bloody-minded continually, then Sean Connery would slap her. – [VIDEO]
• What is science? Are science and rationality the same thing? If science was something new, what sort of a new thing was science? – [VIDEO]
• Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and all the “Giving Pledge” billionaires, should rather do what Peter Thiel does –go investing their cash and/or (liquidated) fortune in futuristic projects. – [VIDEO]
• Technology Review publishes an uncritical article on collective forecasting used in business. – {CrowdCast}
• Why I am against those billionaires pledging to “give away” the majority of their wealth
• Why you haven’t seen nothing yet when it comes to iOS games
• Simon Johnson: The fiscal deal is irresponsible. – [VIDEO]
• The problem that is Google
• MediCare cheats the young. – MediCare is the biggest Ponzi scheme. – [VIDEO]
• Why you should short-sell RIM
• Quadrotor juggles ball. – [VIDEO]
• Jim Rogers on CNBC Europe – [VIDEO]
• Tron Legacy – Music by Daft Punk – Derezzed – [VIDEO HD]
• Christo’s project over the Arkansas river in Colorado
• Good Bloomberg stuff on GroupOn
• Mark Zuckerberg and Ben Bernanke on 60 Minutes – [VIDEO]
• Michael Lewis on the four sets of players in the subprime mortgage market who had the foresight and gumption to short the riskiest mortgage deals: Steve Eisman of FrontPoint, Greg Lippmann at Deutsche Bank, three partners at Cornwall Capital, and Michael Burry of Scion Capital – [VIDEO]
• Jackson Pollock’s art is nonsense.
• Collective Forecasting a la Robin Hanson – [SLIDES]
• “The hacking of Google that forced the search engine to withdraw from mainland China was orchestrated by a senior member of the communist politburo, according to classified information sent by US diplomats to Hillary Clinton’s state department in Washington. The leading politician became hostile to Google after he searched his own name and found articles criticising him personally, leaked cables from the US embassy in Beijing say.”
• Another great Peter Thiel interview – [AUDIO]
• The redesign of the Gawker Media sites
• Ron Paul: We need a WikiLeaks on the Federal Reserve. – [VIDEO]
• Tyler Cowen on what happens when human neurodiversity meets information technology – [VIDEO]
• James Gosling speaks. – [VIDEO]
• Great interview of WordPress’s Matt Mullenweg
• Jed Christiansen is taken hostage by the Soviets.
• Why the neo-con term “freedom fries” never stuck – [VIDEO]
• Rand Paul soon on US Senate = a good thing for the libertarian message (lot more TV appearances starting 2011) – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
• The Third International Conference on Prediction Markets
• If you just wait long enough, everything happens.
• Crisis of the States: Bankruptcy or Inflation – [VIDEO in French]
• Why the iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market
• Hans Rosling’s data visualization techniques… are… amazing. – [VIDEO]
• Wolfy is cited FIVE TIMES in this prediction market story.
• Dan Pink on motivation – Money (for mechanical tasks) – Autonomy, Mastery, Purpose (for cognitive tasks) – [VIDEO]
• “Cool it” – Bjorn Lomborg on climate change (global warming?) – [VIDEO]
• Ron Conway shamelessly plugs his latest investments. – [VIDEO]
• Julian Assange: “So, as far as markets are concerned, I’m a libertarian, but I have enough expertise in politics and history to understand that a free market ends up as monopoly unless you force them to be free. WikiLeaks is designed to make capitalism more free and ethical.”
• Peter Diamandis – The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself. – [VIDEO]
• Libertarianism = favoring free enterprise over big government. – [VIDEO]
• Engineering magazine pulverizes Ray Kurzweil into fine particules.
• Zappos’s Tony Hsieh: Building a Formidable Brand – [VIDEO]
• Check the comments on the “Death Spiral” post
• The late Jack Valenti did support Larry Lessig’s Creative Commons. – [VIDEO]
• The Death Spiral Of The Prediction Market Startups – [VIDEO]
• Peter Thiel on innovation – [VIDEO]
• Peter Thiel on technological progress – [VIDEO]
• Ron Conway: I disagree with Don Valentine. I put people first, not market. – [VIDEO]
• Prizes – [VIDEO]
• Steve Blank: There is a fine line between hallucination and vision. – [VIDEO]
• Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke only knows about printing money. – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel: Socialism Almost Ruined Thanksgiving – [VIDEO]
• Oprah incites the chicks to go buying an iPad 1 —and in February 2011, they’ll realize that what they really wanted is the iPad 2. – [VIDEO]
• Come here to comment about what you’ve read on Odd Head about Uncle Sam asking for applied research on collective intelligence
• Sequoia Capital’s Don Valentine: Target big markets. – [VIDEO]
• What does this tell you about the state of the startup capital market?
• Vinod Khosla: The pundits are incapable of forecasting the future. – [VIDEO]
• How much are startup options worth?
• SeaSteading on CBS Sunday Morning – [VIDEO]
• The Steve Jobs litmus test
• “The REAL lesson most investors should take away from the largest institutional insider-trading investigation in history is that competition in the global financial markets is so intense that it’s basically idiotic to trade.”
• Masonomics
• BetFair’s David Yu speaks. – [VIDEO]
• Ron Conway: The people first — the idea and the market size second and third. – [VIDEO]
• Vote now for a finalist for the MUSTACHED AMERICAN OF THE YEAR.
• Remember Nigel Eccles of HubDub?
• Sophari – Harnessing collective intelligence
• Track the Bet is a sports betting analytics software which helps users manage their sports picks with multiple reports and graphs.
• Predict X = Play-money prediction markets
• SportsRiskIndex to provide sports-based risk management products to sports-related businesses
• Technological change and asset returns
• Big trends in VC land (super angels, etc.) – [VIDEO]
• The gastronomic meal of the French has been recognized by Unesco. – [VIDEO]
• Long article about Paul Graham in Forbes
• By now, you’ve heard of that “feeling the future” paper, right? – [VIDEO]
• Ron Paul on the TSA scandal – [VIDEO]
• The sad tale of the prediction market startups
• With friends like these…
• Nothing great was created without irrational exuberance. – [VIDEO]
• Yet another greatly insane Peter Thiel interview… – [VIDEO]
• Peter Thiel describes how our entire civilization is predicated on accelerating technological change. – [VIDEO]
• Peter Thiel says the U.S. may be facing several years of slow growth or stagnation. – [VIDEO]
• Robert Eringer vs. Prince Albert of Monaco – [VIDEO]
• Very interesting Peter Thiel interview. Watch. – [VIDEO]
• Why Silicon Valley isn’t in the Boston area? – [VIDEO]
• Steve Wozniak on the Early Days of Apple – Haas School – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel – The battle for the future (of America) – [VIDEO]
• Justin Wolfers pumped up the shitty, play-money prediction exchange run by InTrade/WSJ.
• BetFair trained a bunch of eagles and hawks for publicity at the 2010 Ryder Cup. – [PICTURES]
• Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver
• Mr T. is more bullish on gold than Mr Ruspini. – [VIDEO]
• I Want Your Money. – [VIDEO]
• BetFair set a price range for its initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange at $17.48 to $22.25 a share, valuing its equity at up to $2.35 billion.
• U.S. regulators unveiled a series of proposed governance rules for derivatives clearinghouses and trading platforms that are designed to protect the market.
• The latest on the BetFair float
• Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street – [VIDEO]
• Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.
• Jason Trost on BetFair: They haven’t innovated much, and they’re too pricey.
• If prediction markets are such a powerful tool, then why aren’t we able to use them to solve [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE WORLD PROBLEM HERE]?
• A somewhat simplistic, but nonetheless interesting, article in which the predictive quality of the BetFair market is slagged off, because it upsets their traditional form book study methods (by implication, of course, if they are right, then everybody could/should/would just follow the late money and win).
• It is now legal in the UK to lay down your own horses. – [Industry Jurisprudence]
• Ex-BetFair Mark Davies on sport corruption and betting fraud
• Ex-BetFair Mark Davies defends betting in the wake of the latest sport corruption affair. – [VIDEO]
• More Garbage Words: Social Security, “A Minor Fiscal Issue”
• Social B.I. … or social B.S. … ?
• Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger
• Ex-BetFair’s Mark Davies –> His new blog URL.
• Things Jason Ruspini wanna know
• Money does not motivate humans… – [VIDEO]
• The latest Kauffman poll of economic bloggers
• Midas Oracle also publishes a twitter feed, which has info you won’t get on this blog.
• 3 years later, Mark Davies finally sees the light. — [Better late than never.]
• Emile Servan-Schreiber @ Lumenogic
• Hedging on Prediction Markets
• Jason Ruspini, vice president of Conquest Capital, reveals the three indicators he uses to predict how high gold prices will go.
• Chief Economists = PR People
• Europe-based bettors would do better without the gambling monopolies.
• Prediction Markets = Social Business Intelligence
• Paul The Octopus can’t be a psychic –but his care taker could.
• HuffPost on derivatives (and prediction markets)
• [I]f [Paul The Octopus] had started with a €10 stake and bet it on all his picks [via BetFair or else], he would have made about €14,000.
• Cantor Fitzgerald has laid off the entire staff of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX).
• InTrade simulates event derivative trading on your iPhone.
• Mark Davis [*] was not invited at the party celebrating the 10 years of BetFair.
• David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker.
• CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine talks about “the cloud and the crowd”.
• Cantor Fitzgerald becomes a bookmaker in Las Vegas.
• Pollster John Zogby attacks statistician Nate Silver. — “You take other people’s polls, compare records for predictions, add in some purely arbitrary (and not transparent) weights, then make your own projections and rankings.”
• Mark Davies leaves BetFair —but the SEO cretins stay.
• Liberal politicians (sucking up to the Hollywood lobby) have managed to destroy one promising financial innovation applied to the movie business.
• The Interdependence of Prices and Gold
• What’s different about Predictalot?
• Today marks the first time that Midas Oracle has aired a political ad.
• BetFair: “Residents of Monaco are allow to use Betfair and all the accounts from Monaco are still opened.”
• CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”.
• Midas Oracle always tells the truth.
• How to Make Money Playing Prediction Markets
• US Justice asks Prince Albert of Monaco to give every detail about his 2002-2006 employment of Robert Eringer (a US citizen) as Chief Intelligence Officer (a.k.a. “spymaster”) of the Principality of Monaco.
• Felix Salmon wins the ASA 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
• The value of prediction market journalism, which doesn’t produce any scoop, is zero.
• Prof Michael Giberson still into prediction market manipulation
• BetFair withdraws from France… and Monaco. – [UPDATED]
• BREAKING: The CFTC approves MDEX’s real-money prediction markets on movie box office.
• Jim Rogers on commodities, currencies, stocks, banks, emerging markets, etc.
• InTrade co-founder’s brand-new newsletter on finance
• Pre-IPO BetFair silences its PR chief Mark Davies.
• The new French law on Internet betting and gambling – [VIDEO]
• Kenneth Rogoff on the US economy going forward – [VIDEO]
• Rand Paul – [VIDEO]
• Nations Will Print Money, Go Bust, Go to War. –> We Are Doomed.
• This is not a pipe. This is Muhammed.
• According to InTrade, Rand Paul will be elected US Senator in November 2010 —Kentucky Edition. – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel – Gambling in America – [VIDEO]
• CFTC: 3-2 in favor of approval of movie contracts —SO FAR.
• What was said at the U.S. House Ways & Means Committee’s hearing on Internet gambling and betting – [VIDEO]
• YouTube video shows wrong profile of BetFair’s Mark Davies.
• Google Prediction API
• Hollywood clashed with Wall Street on Wednesday at a government hearing about the potential sale of futures contracts linked to box office receipts of major motion pictures.
• U.S. House Ways & Means Committee holding hearing on Internet gambling and betting – [VIDEO]
• The Great Contemporary Art Bubble – [VIDEO]
• Book Review: The Limits of Transparency
• Real returns and gold
• President Obama’s regulatory czar says that incentives, not top-down regulation, can make us do the right thing —and that includes slowing climate change.
• Interview with BetFair’s Andrew Black – [VIDEO]
• John Stossel explains why he’s all-in for legalizing gambling.
• McDermott’s online gambling proposal hearing coming May 19, 2010 – [VIDEO]
• The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.
• ZateTrade Prediction Market
• New York-based hedge fund Conquest Capital’s macro fund turned a 3.75 percent profit on Thursday, and ended the week up about 10 percent not including fees.
• I highly recommend the Tyler Cowen podcast.
• Every investment in film is gambling.
• Felix Salmon’s hastily written NYT Op-Ed about the Cantor Exchange and MDEX
• The election night on BetFair – [CHART]
• BetFair App for iPhone only works for Great Britain and Ireland. – [SCREEN SHOTS]
• Off The Chart
• Robin Hanson bores his students with Futarchy. –> He is asked to apply his concept to Himself.
• US Budget Crisis –> When?
• BetFair’s guerilla marketing on General Election 2010 – [VIDEO]
• The next British Prime Minister @ TED – [VIDEO]
• Marcus Miller – TuTu
• Midas Oracle is truly universal.
• EXCLUSIVE: Chris Hibbert has been hired by Google.
• Philippe Kahn: Luck has more importance for your career/startup than skills and hard work.
• Former HSX website developer tells everything he knows about movie marketing.
• If you are reading this Midas Oracle frontpage on your iPad, please feedback me on whether you saw the YouTube videos.
• David Pennock’s buddy wants you to explore the Web with “Pivot”. – [VIDEO]
• Max Keiser: Cantor Exchange and Media Derivatives Exchange would be an “insiders/traders’s paradise”.
• All 3 British political leaders fell for the global warming scam.
• Iowa Electronic Markets’s George Neumann on InTrade prediction markets for Lloyd Blankfein resignation: “it’s in bad taste”.
• Prof Schuyler Moore made a good impression on US Representatives.
• BETFAIR RETRACTS FROM THE FRENCH MARKET.
• What the Cantor Exchange (HSX) and the Media Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) really said to the US Congress about movie futures (a.k.a. box-office derivatives) – [VIDEO]
• Steve Jobs tells you to run a HTML5 website —without Flash.
• WashPost: “The British will bet on anything.”
• Risks pay off —sometimes. – [VIDEO]
• The URLs of the UK’s General Election 2010
• German Prediction Markets
• Jason Ruspini has a past.
• iPredict is a way to cheaply aggregate and quantify opinions on any factual question.
• Solar activity and cosmic rays drive the Earth’s climate.
• UK’s General Election 2010
• Cantor Exchange and Trend Exchange defend the usefulness of movie hedging.
• Professional analysts are 51% worse than amateur analysts…
• CFTC approves the Cantor Exchange, but won’t approve its movie box-office prediction markets.
• Okay to Play: Support i-Gaming
• Convergence in online gaming and land-based gaming
• How to publish on Midas Oracle
• NewsFutures’s post mortem on the French elections
• Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate
• CrowdCast @ Under the Radar 2010
• Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.
• CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the Trend Exchange and the Cantor Exchange’s movie box-office prediction markets
• Why the CFTC won’t approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchange’s prediction markets on movie box office
• Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world’s best statisticians.
• CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.
• Movie business person will confess to Max Keiser that he/she traded on insider information.
• “My bill will bring 100 percent transparency to our financial markets, prevent future bailouts and, most importantly, protect Main Street.”
• Why Hollywood Doesn’t Want You Betting on Hollywood
• HubDub is dead, but we loved it.
• BetFair’s political prediction markets on the BBC – [VIDEO]
• U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln said she would introduce a bill requiring centralized exchange for trading of all derivative contracts.
• Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are “eerily accurate”, sucking up to InTrade’s PR and Hanson’s spinning. – [VIDEO]
• Prediction Market Video – [VIDEO]
• “It is clear that the MPAA is not familiar with the futures markets or the regulatory framework within which they operate.”
• Allegations about Cantor Fitzgerald, the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the Cantor Exchange
• Market manipulation in movie business futures
• Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.
• Short take on the new gambling laws in France
• Online gambling in the UK tightened up
• My 2 minutes (and 4 seconds) of fame – [VIDEO]
• Twitter is more predictive than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). – [RESEARCH]
• Online gambling regulation: players two, casinos nil. And about time, too.
• Important correction
• Mike Robb takes charge of the BetFair Bureau at New York.
• Wow, Pennock Senior is *much* crazier than Pennock Junior.
• Prediction markets are already on the iPad via Safari (Apple’s web browser). Native apps to come? – [VIDEO]
• Prediction Markets APIs
• Are you a British trader who bets on UK politics at BetFair?
• Inkling Markets in BusinessWeek
• Speculating and hedging on BetFair’s sports prediction markets
• 6 new prediction market papers are coming out soon.
• Peter Schiff for President
• BetFair’s Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.
• The Motion Picture Association Of America (MPAA) comes out as fiercely against movie business futures.
• The UK political prediction markets are starting to get fun.
• MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT
• The sudden dip in March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
• Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
• UK political prediction markets at Smarkets
• InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.
• Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.
• Michael Lewis on Imus – [VIDEO]
• Does InTrade participate on its 2012 Republication Nomination prediction markets?
• Health Care Reform Explained
• BetFair’s Mark Davis on Internet gambling regulations in the UK
• The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
• The Tragedy Of Alex Tabarrok
• “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
• Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?
• What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…
• 2010 Economics Bloggers Forum
• Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
• When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
• Selling Us Short: The Limits of Markets (and Governments) – Joe Stiglitz and Jim Chanos – [VIDEO]
• MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT… of Greece
• History of BetFair, from the concept to the startup —in Andrew Black and Edward Wray’s own words
• The stock market is stochastic.
• BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.
• Bookmaker laying a la BetFair
• BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad –> BetFair Rattle
• “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
• OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
• We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.
• Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.
• What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?
• CrowdCast + SAP
• Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot
• Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?
• Predictalot is a combinatorial prediction exchange.
• Michael Lewis on CBS 60 Minutes: How the capitalism was almost destroyed by the capitalists in the fall of 2008 – [VIDEO]
• Peter Schiff on CNBC Fast Money – [VIDEO]
• Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets
• Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
• CrowdPark = collective forecasting in German
• In light of the upcoming “bursting” of the Cantor Exchange, Max Keiser have regrets about creating the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
• Max Keiser claims to have predicted the Lehman Brothers creative accounting thing.
• Cantor Exchange in the New York Times
• American Civics Exchange has plunged into the death pool —it seems.
• Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. –> September 24, 2010
• Libertarian journalist John Stossel explained InTrade’s prediction markets, and forgot BetFair.
• GREAT NEWS: Stephen Burn is now the big boss at BetFair USA [*], and Gerard Cunningham is out. – [VIDEO]
• BetFair TV ad makes fun of the French people…!!!… – [VIDEO]
• Smarkets want you to believe that they are going after a much bigger betting market than BetFair’s one.
• PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.
• Any philanthropist or foundation interested in using prediction markets to foster free-market philosophy understanding?
• US Patent Office patents Amazon’s one-click shopping cart. — Will it impact our Web-based prediction exchanges?
• OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? — [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]
• Here’s the man who would deliver a wise analysis on whether the InTrade HCR PM is being manipulated or traded by “DC insiders”.
• Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. –> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.
• Business Insider readers are rather skeptical of the InTrade insider trading story.
• Any people from BetFair’s marketing department?
• Humoristic factoid of the day…
• Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
• French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.
• French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.
• Paul Krugman’s excellent definition of the prediction markets
• REVOLUTION: Nate Silver says the Internet changed everything in politics. – [VIDEO]
• SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]
• CONFUSED: Nate Silver’s marshmallow politics – [VIDEO]
• ACCUSATION: Nate Silver over-uses Wikipedia. – [VIDEO]
• Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO]
• In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists —David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.
• Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem — InTrade Prediction Markets
• Logica FutureScope
• Yahoo! economics – [VIDEO]
• Mark Davies spills the beans on how BetFair became #1.
• “They made a mistake haha. They asked me to make it for them.”
• Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
• Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
• How does professor Lance Fortnow use Twitter?
• Greece owns buildings, companies and uninhabited islands, which could all be used for debt redemption.
• The future of the prediction markets is on the smartphones.
• Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.
• The secret service that BetFair uses internally to monitor its web buzz
• PubSubHubbub + PuSHPress
• DOCUMENTED: How Mark Davies joined a small startup called BetFair —when it was just an Excel spreadsheet file
• REVEALED: How Inkling Markets is spying on BetFair, Smarkets, InTrade, HSX, NewsFutures, Consensus Point, Spigit, Zocalo, CrowdCast, and Midas Oracle
• How to fund your startup? –> seed-stage capital
• HSX-founder Max Keiser on the Cantor Exchange – [VIDEO]
• BetFair (a prediction exchange) + ComRes (a pollster)
• French online gambling laws are turning into a kafkian farce.
• David Servan-Schreiber on anti-cancer food – [VIDEO]
• Bloom Box on CBS 60 Minutes – [VIDEO]
• ClimateGate: How leftist scientists cooked the data on climate change to scare the hell out of people – [VIDEO]
• The Euro will fall to $1 within a year. – [PREDICTION]
• If you are into rugby betting…
• A Note on the Impotence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis
• Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection and Enforcement Act
• The secret URL where Google prototypes the future of search
• Ron Paul –> the good… and the ugly
• Cantor Exchange expects to receive final regulatory approval by Tuesday, April 20, 2010…
• The BetFair and InTrade websites are going to be blocked in France…
• Efficient Markets Hypothesis
• SportingExchange Financial Statement for Year Ended 30 April 2009
• Expressing betting prices as percentages
• What’s wrong with soccer betting
• Smarkets better than BetFair and InTrade
• Rejection of the patent claims involving a method of hedging risks in commodities trading
• Paul-Romney 2012
• BetFair forum Q&A – Tuesday, February 16, 2010
• Counterfactual Thinking – [VIDEO]
• Economist Paul Krugman speaking at MIT about the 2007–2010 financial crisis – [VIDEO]
• Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen = Political Pundit — [PREDICTIONS]
• BetFair’s Mark Davies, who started blogging on New Year’s Day 2010, has yet to learn two or three things about search engine optimization.
• Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]
• The United States and the European governments will default on their debt, eventually — dixit Marc Faber. [PREDICTIONS]
• Betfair the “Masonic Lodge”
• Mastercard and Visa online gambling crackdown
• What Does Gold Hedge Against?
• 2010 State of Entrepreneurship Address
• How Paul Volcker will save the world
• In the universe of Steve Jobs, personal vision trumps the wisdom of the crowd. He’s ready when he thinks we’re ready.
• CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.
• BetFair’s Mark Davies is (finally) blogging.
• Jean-Michel Jarre
• How to bet on Smarkets
• BetFair apologizes to Niall O’Connor… and the other traders affected by the site outage.
• Should Adam Siegel change the name of his prediction market company?
• New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France
• Betfair’s Liability in relation to its software failing
• Apple iPad
• Fear the Boom and Bust
• CONFIRMED: Midas Oracle will be on the Apple Tablet.
• Ladbrokes data scandal: personal information of millions of customers offered for sale to national newspaper
• Nigel Eccles is not dead.
• Experts trading on prediction markets
• BARACK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARE CLOSY MONITORING INTRADE’S PREDICTION MARKETS.
• BetFair (via Right2Bet) are furious at the new French gambling laws.
• In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets.
• Mike Robb’s blog on PR, media, betting exchanges, and other British things (mint sauce on red meat, etc.)
• The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.
• Social betting In Italy –> vedrete.it
• Patrick Young Spotting Of The Month — Monaco Edition
• Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).
• Give your e-mail address to BetFair… to win an Apple iPod Touch 8GB — MAYBE.
• Jim Rogers on commodities, the commodity bubble, gold, the gold bubble, crude oil, the crude oil bubble, China, the China bubble — etc.
• BetFair, explain to me how this crazy video will help legalize the real-money prediction markets in foreign countries.
• France will soon block access to the BetFair and InTrade websites.
• The Internal Revenue Service is examining whether equity swaps help banks avoid taxes by masking who really owns the shares underlying the instruments.
• iPredict’s first conditional prediction markets
• ROBIN HANSON, WE DON’T GIVE THE FIRST FIG ABOUT YOUR DEBATE WITH THAT MENCIUS MOLDBUG.
• Bill Gates now uses Twitter. — Paul Hewitt and David Pennock should use it too.
• Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.
• InTrade servers were down on Mass. election night.
• Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX
• Can a conditional prediction market play chess?
• Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
• You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…
• The U.S. is headed for a major debt crisis —within 5 to 10 years.
• How Monte Carlo simulations can forecast sales
• HR 2267 = a bill that would legalize Internet gambling in the United States
• Eugene Fama (the father of the efficient markets hypothesis): Here’s historical evidence that momentum trading doesn’t work.
• BetUknow combines the new web thinking with the world of sports betting and predictions.
• Critics of the efficient market hypothesis are all hat and no cattle.
• BetFair at the Crunchies 2009
• Does the NBA have a gambling problem?
• The difference between invention and innovation
• The possibility of self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies is an issue with any forecasting mechanism where forecasters have any incentives to offer more, vs. less, accurate forecasts. It is not a problem particular to prediction markets.
• Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
• Robin Hanson does not make the list.
• Betable – Bet on anything. Bet with your friends.
• One of the key reasons why timing and exact prediction is so difficult is the futility of conventional cause-effect thinking in complex adaptive systems.
• Do not fuck with data visualization
• Emile Servan-Schreiber’s bro on Imus
• Copenhagen Prediction Market
• Ray Kurzweil (Robin Hanson’s guru) got his 1999-2009 predictions … all wrong.
• How the iPredict market maker works
• Felix Salmon is cautiously bullish on prediction markets.
• The people who know the most about finance are the people who work in it.
• Prediction market blogger quits InTrade.
• Which industry is more detrimental to society — finance or gambling?
• The Golden Egg
• InTrade has a higher PageRank than BetFair. No change.
• Robin Hanson: Prediction markets are interesting as forums, not methods.
• BetFair is the best innovation that happened to horse-race betting.
• Midas Oracle generated more than 100,000 pageviews in December 2009.
• The Apple Tablet looks like a bigger iPhone that sports an awesome UI packed in a beautiful 10.1-inch screen.
• CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]
• The unsavory and dangerous practice of financial firms betting against their clients needs to be thoroughly investigated.
• Don’t let the best leaves the boat.
• Platforms, markets, and bytes
• The iPod Touch is the future of the prediction markets.
• If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.
• Robin Hanson’s futarchy is “retarded”.
• Jed Christiansen is not dead.
• Algorithms that execute thousands of trades per second
• Nathan Myhrvold on geo-engineering to combat global warming
• Forecasting the US economy for 2010 and 2011
• YouBet video tutorial for betting on US horse racing over the Internet
• Common pitfalls of enterprise prediction markets: participants who lack relevant information, too few participants, and too little trading.
• Stocks have underperformed gold. Why?
• Yahoo! Finance vertical search
• Predicting the direction of the Market
• Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.
• The Climate Gate scandal highlights the modus operandi of the academic mafia.
• The Prediction Market Journal is dead.
• Crony capitalism at the heart of the financial system
• Time-Series Forecasting
• How Business Insider got it wrong with the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds
• The future of the prediction markets is on the smartphones.
• Debunking Nouriel Roubini on the gold bubble
• NBA’s David Stern does not oppose sports betting anymore — and his successor will favor it (maybe).
• Good article about corporate forecasting in The Economist (circa February 2009)
• Crowdsourcing the US government
• Ron Paul guest hosts on CNBC’s Squawk Box for an hour.
• The scientific consensus and the scientific minority
• Nouriel Roubini on carry trade… and the anemic recovery
• Barney Frank hopes to draft a bill to regulate and collect taxes from legal online gambling.
• Climate Stats = Sausage Making
• A good part of this rise in gold prices is driven by a bubble.
• Peter Schiff says Paul Volcker is right to say that the USA are consuming too much.
• How they shut up the free press at Copenhagen
• Jim Rodgers predicts a world-wide depression.
• United States’s sovereign debt
• Nigel Eccles’s wife wears the pants.
• The state of online gambling
• Maurice Balick is out of hibernation.
• LiveMocks employs a “wisdom of the crowd” technique to predict the order of the NFL and NBA drafts.
• Rational sports predictions
• The Big Business Of Illegal Gambling
• Every time the global temperature data gets revised and homogenized, the trends keep increasing.
• Gold on CNBC’s Fast Money
• Ayn Rand’s influence on Alan Greenspan is responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.
• Is the gold rush over?
• Peter Schiff on gold — again
• ClimateGate, Cap and Trade, and Copenhagen
• What is computer science and what is complexity theory?
• Gold sell off continues apace.
• Terrance Watanabe managed to lose nearly $127 million during a year-long gambling binge at the Caesars Palace and Rio casinos in 2007.
• A British professor in favor of global warming called an American climate skeptic “an asshole” live on BBC’s NewsNight.
• Google Search now personalizes everyone’s search results.
• Peter Schiff is still bullish on gold.
• Gold Bulls and Dollar Bears Silenced
• InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.
• How to outperform the market
• Bankers’ bonuses have less to do with rational incentive mechanisms than with the fact that bankers have power.
• How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets
• Felix Salmon on the plutocrats
• Albert Einstein said, “Besides intuition and knowledge, the only valuable thing is the set of probabilities from the prediction markets; the rest are details.”
• Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds
• Twitter is a flexible, personalized, search engine, pure and simple.
• What was said at the Barney Frank hearing
• Inside the Mind of Google — THE VIDEOS
• Barney Frank hearing on Internet betting and gambling in the United States Of America
• “The United States’ War against Online Gambling” – An analysis of how the US sought and failed to stamp out Internet gambling.
• Tiger Woods Christmas Photo + Tiger Woods Voice Mail + Tiger Woods Christmas Song
• “The road to nowhere – European gambling law from Schindler to Bwin Liga and beyond.”. An analysis of European Gambling Law by Niall O’Connor
• Should a blog run ads?
• Objective: Get more incoming links for Midas Oracle.
• Cantor Exchange
• H.R. 2266, Reasonable Prudence in Regulation Act, and H.R. 2267, the Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection, and Enforcement Act
• Andrew McAfee’s anecdote on enterprise prediction markets is a load of bullsh*t.
• Andrew McAfee wanna share an anecdote about EPMs with you.
• Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets
• Accuracy of millenium predictions
• Peter Schiff was bullish on gold since it was at $300.
• Betting on Copenhagen
• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission will have authority to decide what derivatives must be centrally cleared rather than letting private parties make the call.
• How Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson and Barney Franck ruined the US economy.
• Gold to $2,000?
• The French have taken over the City of London.
• Stats for November 2009 — Midas Oracle Edition
• The Dubai economy was just a mirage.
• New TV ad for Thomson Reuters
• Niall O’Connor is on Twitter –finally.
• Tobin Tax = a tax on financial transactions
• Eminent Domain: How one small town was taken over so Pfizer could build a new campus
• Shift Happens – Fall 2009
• No real-money prediction markets in the US till 2010 or 2011 —at best.
• Jim Rogers on Dubai fears
• Auditing the Federal Reserve — Ron Paul style
• Have you tried Timetric? Like it? Use it?
• The main advantage of web search as a prediction tool may have less to do with its superiority over other methods than with its generality, low cost, and real-time nature.
• The prediction market links that Robin Hanson does not want you to read
• On Prediction Markets for Climate Change
• 3D projection mapping onto an old castle
• Above Robin Hanson — To Infinity And Beyond
• Feedback trading in prediction markets
• Missing TEXT and CATEGORIES widgets in WordPress.org
• Don’t worry too much about the Dubai World default.
• Robin Hanson can’t ignore Paul Hewitt anymore.
• The Journal of Prediction Markets… “may harm your computer”.
• BetFair co-founder Ed Wray laments the suppression of UK’s tax incentive for startup entrepreneurs.
• The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…
• Ron Paul on the Federal Reserve audit
• Gold, US dollar, and inflation
• Paul Krugman Tries to Foist Specious Argument in Tobin Tax Debate.
• Wanna discussing finance on my other Midas Oracle blog, powered by P2?
• The P2 experiment ended up in a total fiasco.
• US Treasury and US Federal Reserve delay implementation of Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act.
• Dennis Gartman: Dubai’s problems are very serious.
• The Chinese real estate bubble
• Paul Hewitt doubts. — REDUX
• Explosive Risk
• How to use P2 on Midas Oracle
• Midas Oracle is thankful for P2 — a new WordPress theme (a.k.a., blog layout) that smoothes the reading and writing of comments.
• Prediction market pioneer and Wall Street outcast Max Keiser is frequently searched on Google since the start of the 2008 financial burst.
• Paul Hewitt doubts.
• Adam Lambert makes sense to me. He is a smart man.
• Why David Pennock and Jed Christiansen should be thankful to Google
• Nate Silver: InTrade is dumb. We need serious exchanges for event derivatives.
• How to use enterprise prediction markets to minimize risks when introducing new products
• BLACK FRIDAY IS FOR SUCKERS.
• Wednesday Addams teaches us the true meaning of Thanksgiving.
• Eric Crampton sheeshes Paul Hewitt.
• Robin, just because we don’t have another method of accurately predicting an outcome doesn’t mean we have to be so appreciative when a prediction market comes up with a forecast just before the outcome is revealed.
• 16 Google Wave invites to hand out
• We should not use prediction markets in the climate change problematic.
• Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations.
• Assume growth.
• You daily shipment of Peter Schiff has arrived.
• Swype versus iPhone

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