Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures
YouTube videos:
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1/2
PART 1: EVIDENCE OF PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY
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2/2
PART 2: WHY PREDICTION MARKETS ARE ACCURATE
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Q&-A1
Q&-A 1: Aren’t political prediction markets just following the polls?
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Q&-A2
Q&-A 2: Why did prediction markets fail to predict the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Irak?
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Q&-A3
Q&-A 3: Would market predictions still be accurate if everyone believed them?
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Q&-A4
Q&-A 4: Is Democracy ready for prediction markets?
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Q&-A5
Q&-A 5: How can trading prices translate into probabilities if individual traders don’t trade accordingly?
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As for Q&A4
There is another big problem in my opinion. Let’s suppose everything works correctly and the prediction market would predict the next place of a terrorist attack. But using this knowledge the governement can prepare and can prevent it before it would happen. In this case how would you pay? Who said yes was right because it would have happened, but it did not happen so he was not right…
This problem is getting even bigger if you use PMs in companies for the same reason.