Cross-posted on Oddhead Blog.
The Yahoo! News Political Dashboard has re-launched for the general election stretch run of the 2008 US Presidential election.
From the main map you can see the status of the election in every state according to either polls or Intrade prediction market odds. Hover your mouse over a state to see current numbers or click on a state to see historical trends. On the side, you can see search trends, blogs, news, and demographic breakdowns at national and state levels.
You can also “-create your own scenario”- by picking who will win in every state. You can save and share your prediction and compare against markets, polls, history, or celebrities. More on ycorpblog.
Readers will be happy to see more thorough and prominent integration of prediction market prices compared to the primary election dashboard. Is that good enough to quiet Chris’-s whining?
In the PM view, states are colored either bright red or bright blue, regardless of how close the race is in that state. To see a visualization that blends colors to reflect the tightness of the race, see electoralmarkets.com.
Yahoo! News also offers a candidate badge that you can display on your blog declaring your choice. The badge features national-level polls, prediction markets, search buzz, and money raised.
At first glance, the prediction market probabilities are un-noticeable. Only after a time, one can spot them. Repeat users who are deeply into prediction markets will make an effort to look into the pale sub-area.
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An improvement from the previous version, though, I admit. And better than no citing of PMs at all, of course.
The questions that our good Doctor Pennock should answer are those:
– Are the electoral college prediction markets useful at all for people who can read polls?
– Are the electoral college prediction markets among the best or the worst prediction markets?
Let’s see whether our good Doctor Pennock is a good prediction market analyst.
I agree with Jed: In small states, poll averages may be relying on months-old data.
The track record in past presidential and senate elections of state by state markets is pretty good, with a number of caveats discussed.
As to Chris’s claim that the prediction market prices are somehow hidden, I disagree. There are two tabs: polls and markets. Click on the “markets” tab and your in. I can’t imagine how much easier it could be.
I was of course thinking of state polls. In other words, what is the usefulness of http://electoralmarkets.com/ compared to http://www.electoral-vote.com/ ??
I don’t think you have answered the question fully.
If you are right, then why most people are visiting http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and not http://electoralmarkets.com/ ??
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PS: David Pennock, people don’t click on tabs.
Let’s put it in another way. Let’s say there are good and bad prediction markets. Are the electoral college prediction markets listed among the good or the bad prediction markets?
Re: Is that good enough to quiet Chris’s whining?
Nothing will ever be that good. (Right Chris?) After all, Chris is an optimist and believes improvement is always possible.
David Pennock, now you understand why I propel this guy as “chairman of the scientific advisory board”.
http://www.midasoracle.org/mission/
He is good and understand me well.
Plus, he is funny like hell in private.
I hope you two guys will meet one day.
Lance Fortnow says on his slides that the polls might sometimes be “harder” to interpret than the prediction markets.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..markets-2/
I have other views. Wouldn’t the electoral college prediction markets reflect the state polls? And if that’s the case, then why should we ask the public to look at the electoral college prediction markets in lieu of or as opposed to the state polls?
I can put my question in another way. If there are “good” and “bad” prediction markets, would you list the electoral college prediction markets among the best or the worst prediction markets?
(Some might list the VP prediction markets among the worst prediction markets, for instance.)
[…] Prices as Probabilities in Election Markets – 2007 presentation by Lance Fortnow Discussion continues here…. […]
Let’s put that issue under another angle.
If the prediction markets reflect the primary indicators, then shouldn’t we search hard for great prediction markets that reflect many different primary indicators, as opposed to just one (e.g., a state poll). Shouldn’t we search for such rare situations where the situation is really complicated, and it’s convenient to trust a prediction market as opposed to one expert or a group of experts?
Shouldn’t we rate the prediction markets?
Shouldn’t we search harder for truly great and useful prediction markets?
Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets?
[…] I have (at least) one answer to my series of provocative questions: Electoral college prediction markets are more useful than the state polls towards the very end of […]
Re: “Are we sure that the public really need electoral college prediction markets?”
No one really needs to ask or answer that kind of question anymore than anyone needs to ask or answer “Are we sure that the public really needs chocolate milkshakes?”
The interesting questions seem to me to be (a) whether an exchange can profitably offer these kinds of prediction markets, (b) what uses are there for these kinds of markets, and (c) what market format works best.
You are wrong. There are two dimensions. The forecasting dimension and the betting dimension. I was of course not talking about the betting dimension. I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants.
I was talking about us, people who focus on the probabilistic predictions. How should we rate the electoral college prediction markets? Lance Fortnow has given one point: there are more useful than the state polls in the days just before Election Day (but not on Election Day itself).
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-markets/
We should make an analysis for each prediction market out there. If you don’t agree with that, we’ll do it without you.
“I would let John Delaney float any event derivatives he wants.”
Just an aside, but even though I agree with Emile Servan-Schreiber’s bad view of the VP prediction markets, I strongly disagree with him in his refusal to run many of them. (NewsFutures had one, if my memory is correct.) I would let traders have their way.
All the questions I am asking are about the forecasting dimension and about the responsibility of what I call “prediction market analysts”. And when Lance Fortnow asked me what the hell is a “prediction market analyst”, I answered that that’s the kind of guy who gives the kind of analysis he gave me about the electoral college prediction markets.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-markets/
15 comments on this post already, great. Polemiques mean a high number of pageviews.
I would guess that “electoral college prediction markets” should be just as good as “election prediction markets”, given the same level of liquidity. As long as the markets get sufficient liquidity I would expect them to perform fairly well. I personally trust electoral markets over electoral polls. This is my opinion and an unscientific statement. For a scientific statement we will need many decades of election outcomes.
[…] New Yahoo! News election dashboard By David Pennock Cross-posted on midasoracle.org […]