Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth
WORLDS MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.
2 thoughts on “WORLDS MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.”
What has the London Midland and Scottish Railway to do with prediction markets?
There is an inherent danger when people persuade themselves that they can foretell the future.
Of course, as an Event outcome approaches, various indicators will strengthen so that the overall prediction (in the minds of the people who would like to know, and wonder what it will be) tends towards the Result itself. Most of the Time. But not ALL of the Time. Because (visualise the link in Number Theory) if we could show that at ANY point in Time we could accurately predict an Event outcome BEFORE the actual Result, we would actually be breaking fundamental Laws of maths and Physics.
Sure, you can look at patterns (eg in the odds and amounts that punters will wager amongst themselves on Event Outcomes) but anyone feeling that this represents “the next big way” to get rich (other than selling the dream of such revelation to the gullible) is destined for disappointment!
Incidentally, for complete operator independence in the interpretation of such patterns, there are, IMHO, few techniques which can rival Neural Networks: if there’s a conclusion tending to become visible, a NN will pick it up and push it into your face.
BUT, it WON’T tell you what it is!
Just that it’s there. This Time…….
(It might tell you that it thinks the Emperor is probably clothed in the finest silk. But it might not have actually looked first……)
.
**** As usual, be WARY of anyone who tries to kid you that they have a Time machine which allows them to see into the future, and to (perhaps) share that privelege with you…… FOR A PRICE!
What has the London Midland and Scottish Railway to do with prediction markets?
Adonis
There is an inherent danger when people persuade themselves that they can foretell the future.
Of course, as an Event outcome approaches, various indicators will strengthen so that the overall prediction (in the minds of the people who would like to know, and wonder what it will be) tends towards the Result itself. Most of the Time. But not ALL of the Time. Because (visualise the link in Number Theory) if we could show that at ANY point in Time we could accurately predict an Event outcome BEFORE the actual Result, we would actually be breaking fundamental Laws of maths and Physics.
Sure, you can look at patterns (eg in the odds and amounts that punters will wager amongst themselves on Event Outcomes) but anyone feeling that this represents “the next big way” to get rich (other than selling the dream of such revelation to the gullible) is destined for disappointment!
Incidentally, for complete operator independence in the interpretation of such patterns, there are, IMHO, few techniques which can rival Neural Networks: if there’s a conclusion tending to become visible, a NN will pick it up and push it into your face.
BUT, it WON’T tell you what it is!
Just that it’s there. This Time…….
(It might tell you that it thinks the Emperor is probably clothed in the finest silk. But it might not have actually looked first……)
.
**** As usual, be WARY of anyone who tries to kid you that they have a Time machine which allows them to see into the future, and to (perhaps) share that privelege with you…… FOR A PRICE!
Adonis