The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

I TOLD YOU SO:

– &#8220-Will Chicago get the Olympics? Dona€™t bet on it. Too risky.&#8220-

– The prediction markets are not able to forecast which country will get the Olympics. The IOC is a close aristocratic group that does not leak information. Hence, it is not possible to aggregate information.

– Once again, Ben Shannon made a very bad bet. He should read Midas Oracle more often &#8212-if he wants to avoid personal bankruptcy.

– Once again, we see that the P.R. agents of InTrade and BetFair (who both bragged about being able to predict Chicago) were overselling.

– BetFair&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

– InTrade&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

– HubDub&#8217-s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?