Via Smarkets, the FT.
The FT.
PS: Contra Jason Ruspini, I have always said that the CFTC route is the wrong route. The U.S. should establish a kind of “-Gambling and Betting Commission”-, like in the U.K., in my view (and Caveat Bettor’-s view).
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Obviously I favored lifting these prohibitions, but that doesn’t answer all regulatory questions pertaining to exchanges, or necessarily get around State laws and the Wire Act — which CFTC regulation would. The main reason you were cool on CFTC regulation was that they wouldn’t allow sports betting, which I was willing to sacrifice because I wasn’t really concerned with sports gambling or Betfair.
Let’s see how the bill shapes up. This is encouraging.. good for my friend Jason Trost too.
Without sports, a prediction exchange is not successful, mister Ruspini.
See HedgeStreet and TradeFair, which are not successful at this time (I wish them the very best for the future).
You’re not getting to the heart of this matter.
Chris, why not go to the betfair general betting forum and send people an invitation to come here and reflect on the future of prediction markets? We (you) need to hear them out.
Tell them to get their butt over here, tell them I said so.
Medemi, I will not advertise Midas Oracle on the BetFair forum.
I can’t do it for you, and I don’t know anyone who can.
It seems we have a mighty barrier between continents.
For one thing Hedgestreet and Tradefair had crap contracts!
Assuming your very narrow definition of prediction exchange, it is true that there are no large Intrade-style exchanges targeting countries without legal barriers. If the CFTC does not get further involved with event futures, that may be the case for some time.. We’ll see.
“your very narrow definition of prediction exchange” ????
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Any exchange that organizes trades of event derivatives.
Any.
CME/CBOT would count then: fed funds futures, nonfarm payroll, weather. No sports. Clearly sports will help any retail betting exchange though.