Robin Hanson:

I&#8217-ve developed a combinatorial betting tech that lets a few or many users edit an always-coherent joint probability distribution over all value combinations of some set of base variables. Far futures base variables might include the years of important tech milestones, population, wealth, or mortality values at particular future dates, etc. Each user edit would be backed by a bet, a bet invested in assets paying competitive interest/returns. This combo bet tech worked well in published lab tests, several firms have used it, and I&#8217-m now working with Consensus Point to deliver a robust commercial implementation. More on the tech here, here, and here.

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See the explainer from David Pennock, which we will link to, again, later on.

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