Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth
Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.
8 thoughts on “Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.”
there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009
But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.
So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.
there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009
But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.
So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.
The IMF is TARP for dictators. Discount.
I agree with you at 50%.
IMO,
there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009
But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.
So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.
One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new…..t=hplatest
http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq
The IMF is TARP for dictators. Discount.
I agree with you at 50%.
IMO,
there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010
a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression
a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009
But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.
So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market.
Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that.
One for you Chris. Big boys playing with monopoly money.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new…..t=hplatest
http://www.piqqem.com/help/faq