BetFair Predicts = a new WordPress-powered website concocted out of San Francisco, California… -whose informational value is close to zero.

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BetFair Predicts

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UPDATE: The guy in charge says in the comment area that this is just an early beta website, which is going to be much improved soon.

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WHAT I LIKE IN BETFAIR PREDICTS

  1. BetFair Predicts is a (clumsy) response to some of the (harsh) criticism I directed at them. So, it shows that they listen up.
  2. They chose WordPress as the content management system (CMS) for this project &#8212-it’s the right choice. (DruPal would have been OK for a more sophisticated project.)
  3. They are web-hosted on an independent domain name (as opposed to a sub domain on the betfair.com website.) It’s good because it gives them freedom to use whatever information technology they want. (For security reason, they get limitations on their main website. That’s why the BetFair blog had to be run on MovableType, and not on WordPress.) – [UPDATE: The website now redirects to http://predicts.betfair.com/.]
  4. The architecture of this new website is well done. It’s standard. (Unlike the BetFair blog, which is a price of crap, technically.)
  5. They created a new compound chart on the 2008 US presidential elections. (I have hot-linked to it, just below.)

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WHAT I DISLIKE IN BETFAIR PREDICTS

  1. It was an error to call this project BetFair Predicts“, singular. “BetFair Predict”, plural, would have been better, because the wisdom of crowds requires both a collective judgment mechanism (here, a predition exchange named BetFair) and the event derivative traders associated with that prediction exchange. By using the singular, BetFair appropriates a predictive power that should be credited to a community (lead by BetFair).
  2. Overall, it’s a very thin website. It does not bring much to the kitchen table. (That new compound chart above is really the novelty at this time. But it’s not Earth shattering, since the BetFair Politics Zone already displays compound charts, which are dynamic, and which can be hot-linked to.)
  3. That compound chart is probably not a dynamic one (that is, a chart that will update itself in the future). This compound chart is just an image that has been uploaded from the BetFair exchange to this new BetFair Predicts blog, I doubt that that image will be updated in the future.
  4. And they seem light-years behind when it comes to embeddable chart widgets. (They claim on the frontpage that you can “embed” their charts in your blog, but what they offer is just static charts. Those idiots don’t know what they are talking about.)
  5. Their explainer on prediction markets is&#8230- so-so.
  6. Their blog is written by a “Joe Seither”, whose background is not disclosed. The writings (well, only 2 posts, as of today) are typical of any copy-writer who would have been instructed about the mechanism of the prediction markets the day prior to undertaking this project. You won’t find any insights- just banalities. What I see is worthless.
  7. They can’t spell “RSS”. (See below. :-D )

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TAKEAWAY:

  1. BetFair is still struggling with the web publishing technologies.
  2. BetFair is still struggling with the prediction market approach, embodied by InTrade.
  3. BetFair has a hiring problem: they pick up incompetents on the job market and put them in charge too quickly. The result is the disaster detailed above, and chronicled in the Midas Oracle archives since 2006.

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16 thoughts on “BetFair Predicts = a new WordPress-powered website concocted out of San Francisco, California… -whose informational value is close to zero.”

  1. Nigel Eccles said:

    It is definitely a step in the right direction but I guess it is still in beta. You missed that their white widget has its axis in Greek!

    Reply ↓
  2. brianoberkirch said:

    Chris:  first off, wow, fast.  I literally just opened this site up hours ago.  Impressive.  We have tons of stuff coming for the site, including the interactive, dynamic charts you talk about, more posts and background on markets, etc.

    Far from struggling with Web technologies, we’re working as scrappy Web startups do:  ship then iterate.

    & as you are steeped in these sites, I’ll be looking to you for more feedback to improve things.  Thanks for the quick and thorough posting of your thoughts. 

    Reply ↓
  3. Chris F. Masse said:

    Brian,

    Then, Nigel Eccles’s take was the good one: it should be seen as a beta product that will be improved.

    I will be monitoring, and will provide feedback.

    Thanks.

    Reply ↓
  4. Nigel Eccles said:

    Good work Brian. I’ll be looking forwards to seeing how it develops (I’ve still got a couple of shares in Betfair…)

    Reply ↓
  5. brianoberkirch said:

    The joke on IM early this morning was that we decided to add a ‘beta’ tag on the front page.  So 2.0, it hurts!  Now you say the same thing, so, the universe must want us to declare our beta-ness.

    Reply ↓
  6. Chris F. Masse said:

    Google has had products in beta… for years. There is no shame in having a beta product out. Just say so.

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    You republish a Freakonomics post:

    http://predicts.betfair.com/20…..n-outlook/

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    Number one, I don’t think it is a good idea to collate many outside stuff in one blog. Anyway, your call, not mine.

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    Number two, you should deep-link to the post you are uplifting, that’s what Google advise us to do:

    http://googlewebmastercentral……ntent.html

    Otherwise, Google will think you steal content. You could be punished for that.

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    Best wishes.

    Reply ↓
  7. Chris F. Masse said:

    Are you “based in San Francisco, CA” or in London?

    Reply ↓
  9. Nigel Eccles said:

    It is definitely a step in the right direction but I guess it is still in beta. You missed that their white widget has its axis in Greek!

    Reply ↓
  10. brianoberkirch said:

    Chris:  first off, wow, fast.  I literally just opened this site up hours ago.  Impressive.  We have tons of stuff coming for the site, including the interactive, dynamic charts you talk about, more posts and background on markets, etc.

    Far from struggling with Web technologies, we’re working as scrappy Web startups do:  ship then iterate.

    & as you are steeped in these sites, I’ll be looking to you for more feedback to improve things.  Thanks for the quick and thorough posting of your thoughts. 

    Reply ↓
  11. Chris F. Masse said:

    Brian,

    Then, Nigel Eccles’s take was the good one: it should be seen as a beta product that will be improved.

    I will be monitoring, and will provide feedback.

    Thanks.

    Reply ↓
  12. Nigel Eccles said:

    Good work Brian. I’ll be looking forwards to seeing how it develops (I’ve still got a couple of shares in Betfair…)

    Reply ↓
  13. brianoberkirch said:

    The joke on IM early this morning was that we decided to add a ‘beta’ tag on the front page.  So 2.0, it hurts!  Now you say the same thing, so, the universe must want us to declare our beta-ness.

    Reply ↓
  14. Chris F. Masse said:

    Google has had products in beta… for years. There is no shame in having a beta product out. Just say so.

    –

    You republish a Freakonomics post:

    http://predicts.betfair.com/20…..n-outlook/

    –

    Number one, I don’t think it is a good idea to collate many outside stuff in one blog. Anyway, your call, not mine.

    –

    Number two, you should deep-link to the post you are uplifting, that’s what Google advise us to do:

    http://googlewebmastercentral……ntent.html

    Otherwise, Google will think you steal content. You could be punished for that.

    –

    Best wishes.

    Reply ↓
  15. Chris F. Masse said:

    Are you “based in San Francisco, CA” or in London?

    Reply ↓

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