3 thoughts on “Since the crowd is so wise, would one make money by betting systematically on the InTrade favorites (say, once they reach 50)?”
Prediction markets are extremely accurate IN THE LONG RUN, ON AVERAGE. More so for mature markets with reasonable liquidity. There will be quite some margin of error when we consider one market at a time, although that would be hard to prove. You’ll just have to make the right call more often than other people, and hope you can beat commission. An arrogant attitude will not be helpful. Knowledge and experience will be.
The most obvious “system” of all a money maker ? Come on, Chris. And I have lots of bytes on my hard drive I could present as evidence. 5 Year old evidence, even.
If Mccain is smart, he’ll change tactics and let the prediction markets be his guide. That’s what they are there for. My guess is, he’s an idiot Just like all those people who are saying the prediction markets get it wrong (half the time). Let them be idiots. Beer, anyone?
Prediction markets are extremely accurate IN THE LONG RUN, ON AVERAGE. More so for mature markets with reasonable liquidity. There will be quite some margin of error when we consider one market at a time, although that would be hard to prove. You’ll just have to make the right call more often than other people, and hope you can beat commission. An arrogant attitude will not be helpful. Knowledge and experience will be.
The most obvious “system” of all a money maker ? Come on, Chris. And I have lots of bytes on my hard drive I could present as evidence. 5 Year old evidence, even.
The race for the White House tightens.
http://caveatbettor.blogspot.c…..htens.html
If Mccain is smart, he’ll change tactics and let the prediction markets be his guide. That’s what they are there for. My guess is, he’s an idiot
Just like all those people who are saying the prediction markets get it wrong (half the time). Let them be idiots. Beer, anyone?