Time:
QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?
BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what’-s best for the American people.
I think people will see that I’-m not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I’-m not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.
“-Not about ego”-…- is no good for Joe Biden.
“-Complement”-…-. is no good for Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine.
So, it might be Evan Bayh.
UPDATE: Or Jack Reed.
In making his VP observations while simultaneously condemning any trading in the prediction markets, Chris Masse reverts to the primeval days of punditry and polls.
I’m conflicted about Bayh, primarily because of his neighbor-state status. Of course Arkansas and Tennessee are adjoining too, and that didn’t hurt the last Dem to occupy the White House.
Chris, what happened to the “recent discussions” section, did you remove it ?
I think the question is what is your edge playing in these markets? We know this is basically a mug’s game with little information out there, and is your ability to process the information that everyone already has such as who will balance the ticket in what way and who is from which battleground state etc. that superior? The markets clearly are just being thrashed around day-to-day based on tea-reading. Can’t you hear Obama smugly laughing at the media, the bloggers and traders?
.
If you put a gun to my head though and I had to make a trade, short Clinton at 12 here. I don’t buy the party unity argument and Clinton’s inability to defeat Obama given her advantages coming into the primaries speaks of a profound dislike of her that would be foolish to tangle with.
Medemi, yes, that was too much pressure on the SQL server, alas.
By the way, as you know, now only registered members can comment —so as to discard spammers, and to get rid of the anti-spam plugins that bothered our registered members.
It’s easy for people to register themselves. Then, they can comment.
–
Cav, nobody knows anything, and the VP prediction markets are stochastic. I go directly to the primary indicators.
Kathleen Sebelius is the best VP candidate, I believe. What a great woman. And Barack Obama needs to have the Hillary Clinton voters behind him. But that’s a plus. Her main thing is that she has governmental experience, and she is bipartisan.
–
Jason, I agree with your first paragraph.
As for Hillary Clinton, you are so behind the curve, she is not in the top 4 —mainly due to her (incontrollable, by essence, as a former Prez) husband.
Chris, What are you talking about? Did I say she was in the top 4? I said that I thought shorting her was the surest thing on the board – that’s all. Or you can gamble based on the last article you read, how much coffee or wine you’ve had that day, the allure of hitting your longshot, etc.
Politics is boring, but then I find sports betting boring as well. These 2 areas attract the most traders though, probably because traders are confronted with it on a daily basis through the media, at least in the US.
There should be some room for betting on ads, movies, music.
Intrade is boring, and it looks like Hubdub got it right.
Understood, mister Jason.
I was hoping you would get into a fight, maybe we could even have one of those old nonsensical debates about the concept of value…
Seriously, I don’t think the success of sports betting is because it is just that, sports. It’s what keeps people occupied.
Look at the success of Big Brother betting in the UK. A nonsense market, yet very succesful from a liquidity point of view.
So, I guess tax is out Jason. I mean, people in the US should hedge against future tax hikes
but it is not what keeps them occupied at the moment.
That also makes your leading indicator theory look a bit wobbly, Chris.
Maybe I should tell them at Intrade, but alas, I can’t make suggestions on their forum. Maybe the moderator took a long holiday.
There is a lot of truth to that medemi and there is something rather different that I am working on with taxes
In making his VP observations while simultaneously condemning any trading in the prediction markets, Chris Masse reverts to the primeval days of punditry and polls.
I’m conflicted about Bayh, primarily because of his neighbor-state status. Of course Arkansas and Tennessee are adjoining too, and that didn’t hurt the last Dem to occupy the White House.
Chris, what happened to the “recent discussions” section, did you remove it ?
I think the question is what is your edge playing in these markets? We know this is basically a mug’s game with little information out there, and is your ability to process the information that everyone already has such as who will balance the ticket in what way and who is from which battleground state etc. that superior? The markets clearly are just being thrashed around day-to-day based on tea-reading. Can’t you hear Obama smugly laughing at the media, the bloggers and traders?
.
If you put a gun to my head though and I had to make a trade, short Clinton at 12 here. I don’t buy the party unity argument and Clinton’s inability to defeat Obama given her advantages coming into the primaries speaks of a profound dislike of her that would be foolish to tangle with.
Medemi, yes, that was too much pressure on the SQL server, alas.
By the way, as you know, now only registered members can comment —so as to discard spammers, and to get rid of the anti-spam plugins that bothered our registered members.
It’s easy for people to register themselves. Then, they can comment.
–
Cav, nobody knows anything, and the VP prediction markets are stochastic. I go directly to the primary indicators.
Kathleen Sebelius is the best VP candidate, I believe. What a great woman. And Barack Obama needs to have the Hillary Clinton voters behind him. But that’s a plus. Her main thing is that she has governmental experience, and she is bipartisan.
–
Jason, I agree with your first paragraph.
As for Hillary Clinton, you are so behind the curve, she is not in the top 4 —mainly due to her (incontrollable, by essence, as a former Prez) husband.
Chris, What are you talking about? Did I say she was in the top 4? I said that I thought shorting her was the surest thing on the board – that’s all. Or you can gamble based on the last article you read, how much coffee or wine you’ve had that day, the allure of hitting your longshot, etc.
Politics is boring, but then I find sports betting boring as well. These 2 areas attract the most traders though, probably because traders are confronted with it on a daily basis through the media, at least in the US.
There should be some room for betting on ads, movies, music.
Intrade is boring, and it looks like Hubdub got it right.
Understood, mister Jason.
I was hoping you would get into a fight, maybe we could even have one of those old nonsensical debates about the concept of value…
Seriously, I don’t think the success of sports betting is because it is just that, sports. It’s what keeps people occupied.
Look at the success of Big Brother betting in the UK. A nonsense market, yet very succesful from a liquidity point of view.
So, I guess tax is out Jason. I mean, people in the US should hedge against future tax hikes
but it is not what keeps them occupied at the moment.
That also makes your leading indicator theory look a bit wobbly, Chris.
Maybe I should tell them at Intrade, but alas, I can’t make suggestions on their forum. Maybe the moderator took a long holiday.
There is a lot of truth to that medemi and there is something rather different that I am working on with taxes