according to GISS. Assuming the Intrade “-Top 5″- global warming contract expires according to the Land Ocean Index, May – Dec 2008 temperatures will need to average 0.65 Celsius over baseline. The record was set back in 2005, 0.62 Celsius over baseline.
Intrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.
Still, I’-m remain short the contract:
Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.
Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:
- Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
- Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
- Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
- Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
- The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby