–

Freakonomics:

–

Predictify may be a fine “for dummies” prediction game, but it certainly isn’t prediction “market”. It’s rather more like parimutuel betting. The distinction is important because prediction markets reward people not just for being right, but for being right before others. Prediction markets have demonstrated again and again their ability to aggregate information and produce accurate predictions, whereas prediction games like Predictify still have everything to prove.

It is deeply misleading to call any wisdom-of-crowds contraption a prediction market.

— Posted by Emile Servan-Schreiber

–

I agree with Emile here.

Predictify appears to me to be a more sophisticated polling site. In a market, there is an element of risk and consequent reward. I might be willing to risk $100 on my forecast of the presidential election, but only $10 on my forecast of the World Series. That is taken into account in a prediction market, or market of any type.

Most markets allow buying and selling, which could also “lock in” profits based on price movements. While you can change your vote on Predictify, that doesn’t make you any money, real or virtual. You’re just registered as changing your vote.

While polling certainly is an information aggregation mechanism, and fits into the “Wisdom of Crowds,” it doesn’t really appear to be a “market.”

— Posted by Jed Christiansen

–

Jed and EJSS, a prediction market consultant, and the CEO of a struggling prediction market company, make valid points, but WHO CARES? The general public certainly doesn’t. You can continue to quibble all you want and ride the high horse, but if Predictify works, it works, and that’s all anyone cares about. Let’s at least congratulate them on coming up with a unique model.

— Posted by Smack Fogarty

–

Smack,

I think the “valid points” here are pretty important, because they are actually questioning whether Predictify works or not. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence that it does – that’s the point.

— Posted by Matt