Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy

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Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I&#8217-ve seen in years. Go read it.

– Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
– Different types of Prediction Markets
– Problem #1 – Understanding Probabilities
– Problem #2 – Prediction timescale
– Problem #3 – Assessing accuracy
– Problem #4 – Compared to what?
– Summary – How have the political prediction markets really performed?

One thought on “Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy

  1. Chris. F. Masse said:

    Yes. Now, the objective is to put it under the very nose of the skeptics.

    .

    Maybe I will send it to some people.

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    Hey, get yourself a gravatar.

    http://www.gravatar.com/

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