Mister Kirtland:
[…-] I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the traders on InTrade may not be the most diverse group of people we could assemble. I would bet, for example, that not many people from New Hampshire – who would have more direct knowledge of the situation “on the ground” – bet on InTrade. […-]
As I already wrote here, I don’-t buy the argument, but let’-s put that aside.
In public prediction exchanges, traders are self selected. Nothing can be done to change that. Am I correct?
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Davos – World Economic Forum
- CME Group = Chicago Mercantile Exchange + Chicago Board Of Trade
- Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina
- The BetFair blog is not a serious publication.
- MICHIGAN PRIMARY @ BETFAIR: Niall O’Connor asks the very pertinent question.
- One thing John Delaney and his Irish employees at InTrade-TradeSports can learn from the BetFair-TradeFair folks at HammerSmith.
- BetFair compound chart on the Michigan primary
Re: Nothing can be done…
.
Two things come immediately to mind: Changing laws in the U.S., and promotional activities.
But Kirtland is going out on a limb unless he has seen some data. Maybe a reasonable hypothesis, but so far as I know purely speculative.
Mike, promotion would capture more rich Republican white men. I’m not sure you would catch the Democratic women —or other people.
No, but two people trading on InTrade won’t likely make a better prediction than 1000 people, who have diverse knowledge, participating in a poll (look at Bet2Give as an example of thin prediction markets putting out bad predictions). The emphasis here is on the knowledge going into the aggregator, not the aggregator itself.
That said, take those same 1000 people and have them participate in a prediction market, and they’ll out perform the poll everytime.
~alex
Mike, you’re right, I am going out on a limb. It’s speculation on my part. I have no data. On the original post I also postulated that some sort of information cascade, or brief madness-of-the-crowds moment, but at the end of the day, who really knows.
Re: Nothing can be done…
.
Two things come immediately to mind: Changing laws in the U.S., and promotional activities.
But Kirtland is going out on a limb unless he has seen some data. Maybe a reasonable hypothesis, but so far as I know purely speculative.
Mike, promotion would capture more rich Republican white men. I’m not sure you would catch the Democratic women —or other people.
No, but two people trading on InTrade won’t likely make a better prediction than 1000 people, who have diverse knowledge, participating in a poll (look at Bet2Give as an example of thin prediction markets putting out bad predictions). The emphasis here is on the knowledge going into the aggregator, not the aggregator itself.
That said, take those same 1000 people and have them participate in a prediction market, and they’ll out perform the poll everytime.
~alex
Mike, you’re right, I am going out on a limb. It’s speculation on my part. I have no data. On the original post I also postulated that some sort of information cascade, or brief madness-of-the-crowds moment, but at the end of the day, who really knows.