Ireland’-s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds ranging from 4-9 to 4-1.
After his stunning victory last week in the Iowa caucuses, Mr Obama is now odds on favourite at 1-12 to secure the nomination .
Spokesman Paddy Power said: “-With each passing day Obama is looking more like a certainty to get the Democratic vote and, as far as we are concerned, he is already past the post.”-
http://www.bettingmarket.com/
Is there some benefit to closing the market so early? I have a memory of some company recently closing a contract too early which caused problems for people in the market.
What about the flip side – is there a downside to holding a market too long? Lots of things could happen between now and August when Obama (or whomever) really becomes the candidate. The only point where you really know he becomes the candidate is in August. In this case it seems that if a company did that then the Obama contract would sit at 99 cents from February until August – is there any reason not to do that? I guess people want to have their capital freed up – perhaps offering interest on invested money for long running markets could help with that problem.
I guess that different markets can and probably should simply set a standard. i.e. “we will close this as soon as a clear winner has emerged in the primaries” vs. “we will close this when the announcement is made at the convention”. Then it is up to the betters which type of market they want.
Greg, I read it as a publicity stunt by this bookmaker.