The New York Times:
Carol Kauffman, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School: “-When you’re really engaged in a hobby you love, you lose your sense of time and enter what’s called a flow state, and that restores your mind and energy.”- […-] “-That positive emotion builds your cognitive and social skills. If you follow your bliss [*] for a little while, it really gives you a surge of energy.”-
Dr. Gabriela Cora, a psychiatrist who is managing partner of the Florida Neuroscience Center and president of Executive Health and Wealth Institute: “-Making time for enjoyable activities stimulates parts of the brain associated with creative and positive thinking. You become emotionally and intellectually more motivated.”-
Gail McMeekin, a psychotherapist and owner of Creative Success: “-Any time you take a break from routine, you develop new ways of thinking”-.[…-] “-You have to do some market research first and make sure you could earn a living doing your hobby. You also take the risk that making your hobby your career [*] will take all the fun out of it.”-
[*] His “-bliss”- right now is to chronicle the Writers Guild America’-s 2007 strike on Inkling Markets and Midas Oracle .COM.
[**] Told him 10 times!!!!!!!
RECOMMENDED READING: RGGI auction design flaw: Separate sealed-bid auctions for substitute goods poses needless risks for bidders – by Michael Giberson (at Knowledge Problem)
“-RGGI”- is short for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (North East and Mid-Atlantic). They want to create a multi-state cap-and-trade program with a market-based emissions trading system. Economist Michael Giberson has found [links to Crampton’-s paper that highlights] “-one serious flaw that threatens the efficiency of the auction: they proposed to auction two goods which are asymmetric substitutes in separate, simultaneous sealed bid auctions.”-
Mike, are there lessons here to learn when it comes to prediction market designs?
—-
Psstt…- The best sentence that Mike has ever told me is this one (from memory):
Maybe there’-s a method in your madness.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Hot-Linking InTrade’s Advanced Charts
- Prediction Markets on FaceBook
- BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price
- Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
- Technology Futurism
- Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
- Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
To be clear, I didn’t find the flaw. As the post indicates, it was Cramton’s paper that revealed the problem.
There are market design issues aplenty in the making of prediction markets, addressed in high end theoretical work by Hanson and Pennock and at a more practical level by, for example, Chris Hibbert.
On the particular example of substitute goods, one issue mentioned in passing here a while back concerns credit requirements for short sale of related contracts. Haven’t thought about it in detail (being a ‘play money market’ guy for the most part, I tend not to focus on such things). If I was trying to make money off the markets, I’d be concerned about minimizing collateral tied up by short positions.
Corrected. Thanks.
To be clear, I didn’t find the flaw. As the post indicates, it was Cramton’s paper that revealed the problem.
There are market design issues aplenty in the making of prediction markets, addressed in high end theoretical work by Hanson and Pennock and at a more practical level by, for example, Chris Hibbert.
On the particular example of substitute goods, one issue mentioned in passing here a while back concerns credit requirements for short sale of related contracts. Haven’t thought about it in detail (being a ‘play money market’ guy for the most part, I tend not to focus on such things). If I was trying to make money off the markets, I’d be concerned about minimizing collateral tied up by short positions.
Corrected. Thanks.