The Daily DOW prediction markets are thin, and the Daily Nasdaq prediction markets are inexistent.
Here is the data for yesterday.
DOW:
Nasdaq:
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
- The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
- CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
- Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
- The best research papers on prediction markets
- 2008 Electoral Map
- American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
Yes, it would seem that things must have taken a turn for the worse, since Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz wrote in “Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets” (page 7);
“Beyond sports bettors, Tradesports has been quite successful at marketing its platform to those employed in financial markets, a pool of risk-acceptant traders.”
It would be interesting to see what explanation they could give for this.
I also noted in that paper that mention is made of a prediction market software company called Incentive Markets; could somebody clarify whether this is the same company;
“As of Feb 2005, Incentive Markets is no a longer viable company, as stated by Carol Gebert, founder of Incentive Markets, during the Center for Discrete Mathematics & Theoretical Computer Science (DIMACS) Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices (Information Markets).”
“It would be interesting to see what explanation they could give for this.” InTrade-TradeSports was fined by the US CFTC for floating event derivatives on commodities.
Incentives Markets was a bit like Consensus Point or Inkling, a consulting firm and software vendor for internal prediction markets.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/20/753
I’m not sure why someone would trade in those markets. I mean the answer is high leverage and low fees relative to your account size, but if you can’t fund a regular stock account should you be day-trading these markets??
Yes, it would seem that things must have taken a turn for the worse, since Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz wrote in “Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets” (page 7);
“Beyond sports bettors, Tradesports has been quite successful at marketing its platform to those employed in financial markets, a pool of risk-acceptant traders.”
It would be interesting to see what explanation they could give for this.
I also noted in that paper that mention is made of a prediction market software company called Incentive Markets; could somebody clarify whether this is the same company;
“As of Feb 2005, Incentive Markets is no a longer viable company, as stated by Carol Gebert, founder of Incentive Markets, during the Center for Discrete Mathematics & Theoretical Computer Science (DIMACS) Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices (Information Markets).”
“It would be interesting to see what explanation they could give for this.” InTrade-TradeSports was fined by the US CFTC for floating event derivatives on commodities.
Incentives Markets was a bit like Consensus Point or Inkling, a consulting firm and software vendor for internal prediction markets.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/20/753
I’m not sure why someone would trade in those markets. I mean the answer is high leverage and low fees relative to your account size, but if you can’t fund a regular stock account should you be day-trading these markets??