InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007. That&#8217-s their main error. Last September, they expired this event derivative on the basis on Larry Craig stating his &#8220-intent to resign&#8221- &#8212-which is different than to announce an upcoming or effective resignation. Larry Craig later changed his &#8220-intent&#8221- &#8212-he then intended to stay in the US Senate (providing he would be able to withdraw his guilty plea). Unfortunately, today, a judge ruled against his attempt to dismiss his guilty plea. So, US Senator Larry Craig is announcing today that:

1. He is not resigning from the US Senate-
2. He will not seek re-election for his US Senate seat.

The condition #2 is sufficient to expire the December 2007 Larry Craig contract on the &#8220-yes&#8221- side. (&#8221-Yes&#8221-, he is announcing his &#8220-intention not to run in 2008&#8243-.)

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ADDENDUM: The original InTrade contract

Sen. Larry Craig to announce resignation or intention not to run in 2008 on/before 31 Dec 2007 – This event derivative has been expired by InTrade on September 5, 2007.

The rules (= the event derivative contract statement):

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Senator Larry Craig announces his resignation from the Senate or announces he will not run for re-election in 2008 on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if this does not happen on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.

A resignation does not have to result in the actual departure by the contract expiry date but rather the announcement of the resignation must be made before the date and time specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on official, public announcements made by Larry Craig as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.