Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

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Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry

[…] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have gone public about their use of internal prediction markets, and probably another 10 percent will be testing some projects.” […]

As [Robin] Hanson notes, “the winners are attracted by losers, just as wolves are attracted by sheep.” […]

I made a point to this journalist, and since he has not published it, I will share it with you. I said that prediction markets, as an information aggregation mechanism, is a meta forecasting tool, since prediction markets feed on all the other forecasting tools. Do you, guys, agree with my censored statement?

I also made a sidebar comment to him. I said that David Perry of Consensus Point is the major evangelizer of the use of internal prediction markets, these days &#8212-once you have acknowledged Google&#8217-s public input. Agree, disagree?

Ron Paul is being silenced, BetFair is victimized in the US, and, finally, Chris Masse is censored &#8212-but we all try to resist. :-D We will defeat these three conspiracies (which I suspect Bo Cowgill is part of), ultimately. :-D

Go reading the article, if you haven&#8217-t done already (and then read Mike Giberson&#8217-s comments). &#8212- Bet on It! – (page two – page three) &#8212- Via Steve Roman

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UPDATE: Robin Hanson comments&#8230-

I don’t that much care about terminology here, but I do agree that prediction markets should shine best at the meta level, when competing institutions try to draw what insight they can from other institutions running in parallel.

One thought on “Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

  1. Robin Hanson said:

    I don’t that much care about terminology here, but I do agree that prediction markets should shine best at the meta level, when competing institutions try to draw what insight they can from other institutions running in parallel.

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