James R Miceli for Congress
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Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz were asking, “-How to attract uninformed traders?”-. (PDF file) Well, here’-s one answer. Make suckers believe that Inkling Markets is like a voting system, where the more supporters show up for a political candidate, the more likely it will be that their candidate will get the nomination/election. (See Mike Giberson’-s excellent blog post, yesterday, for more info.)
REALITY CHECK: The “-votes”- sent to Inkling Markets by the uninformed traders will be overturned over time as the active and informed traders (the “-market makers”-) go trading on this particular prediction market.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- “Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?”
- The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
- My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
- Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
- Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
I think Inkling offers a cheap and easy way for people to learn about prediction markets, and think that more political candidates should urge participation among their supporters!
In an unrelated note
, I’m aiming to score a substantial boost to my inkling count on the day this market closes.
RE: Your first comment
That’s why NewsFutures, InTrade, BetFair and all the others should open as many local political prediction markets as possible. Do you think that a US politician would urge his/her followers to speculate on his/her behalf [!] on real-money prediction exchanges??
Probably not, or at least not publicly. Besides, when suckers’ — uh, I mean supporters’ money is available, most politicians would likely prefer to have it for their campaign.