The Harry Potter litmus test

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I propose the following test to check whether &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8220-.

– Is J.K. Rowling able to write an 8th installment of the series (a sequel) without resurrecting Harry Potter?

1. If &#8220-yes&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

2. If &#8220-no&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is not alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

NOTE: Prequels are of course allowed in both cases. (Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip)

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1. If J.K. Rowling writes in an epilogue that Harry Potter will die after a life well lived (that is, from natural cause, after a long and happy life), then an 8th book is possible.

2. If J.K. Rowling writes that Harry Potter dies in the hands of his &#8220-old nemesis&#8221-, then an 8th book is not possible (unless J.K. Rowling resurrects her hero).

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Note that, in the Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes case, we are in the configuration #2.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows. (15,813 contracts held.)


© NewsFutures

Static chart:

Harry Potter NewsFutures

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Previous: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

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NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

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4 thoughts on “The Harry Potter litmus test”

  1. Niall O'Connor said:

    I have sold off all my “Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows” event derivative at NewsFutures.

    The market has climbed 10 points since you sold. A clear case of paralysis by analysis.

    Me think the man does thinkest too much regarding Potter.

    Reply ↓
  2. Chris. F. Masse said:

    Very funny intervention, as always.

    Now seriously, there are more than 15,000 contracts on this prediction markets. Hundreds of people will be affected by the ruling.

    —

    HARRY POTTER: The hacker, known only as Gabriel, exploited the PCs of one or more employees at Bloomsbury by sending an email-borne threat.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ne-threat/

    REUTERS:

    In the latest movie, Harry discovers he and his evil nemesis Voldemort cannot both survive, raising the possibility that one, or both of them could die in the end.

    http://investing.reuters.co.uk…..#038;sz=13

    HARRY POTTER: Chris Masse is a sucker, implies Niall O’Connor of Betting Market.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ng-market/

    Such is the rush of money for Harry Potter’s demise that William Hill has stopped taking bets as Harry Potter mania builds ahead of publication on July 21, 2007.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..y-21-2007/

    British edition of “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows” offers more clues

    http://blogs.mercurynews.com/a…..clues.html

    Is This the End of Harry, on the Web?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06…..3pott.html

    The Twisted Economics Of Harry Potter

    The wizard brings both profit and pain to his business partners

    http://www.businessweek.com/ma….._top+story

    Harry Potter printer steps up security

    http://new.edp24.co.uk/content…..3A59%3A653

    British printer of the 7th Harry Potter book, The Deathly Hallows, steps up security.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..-security/

    Harry Potter and the Plot-Spoiling, Phishing Scam

    http://www.eweek.com/article2/…..245,00.asp

    J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..t-not-die/

    J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..not-die-2/

    HARRY POTTER DEATH — NewsFutures prediction market = Zogby Interactive survey

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ve-survey/

    We, the undersigned, petition J.K. Rowling to write more new adventures for Harry Potter and his friends no matter what happens at the end of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..y-hallows/

    Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ter-short/

    The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..be-flawed/

    The Harry Potter litmus test

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..tmus-test/

    Deep Throat on the expiry of the Harry Potter event derivative

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..erivative/

    North Korean Missile Prediction Market = Harry Potter Demise Prediction Market

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..on-market/

    Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..as-oracle/

    Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle… AGAIN

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..cle-again/

    J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows is now accessible via BitTorrent.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ittorrent/

    People are googling HARRY POTTER EPILOGUE like crazy.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ike-crazy/

    Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..hallows-3/

    Reply ↓
  3. Niall O'Connor said:

    I have sold off all my “Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows” event derivative at NewsFutures.

    The market has climbed 10 points since you sold. A clear case of paralysis by analysis.

    Me think the man does thinkest too much regarding Potter.

    Reply ↓
  4. Chris. F. Masse said:

    Very funny intervention, as always.

    Now seriously, there are more than 15,000 contracts on this prediction markets. Hundreds of people will be affected by the ruling.

    —

    HARRY POTTER: The hacker, known only as Gabriel, exploited the PCs of one or more employees at Bloomsbury by sending an email-borne threat.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ne-threat/

    REUTERS:

    In the latest movie, Harry discovers he and his evil nemesis Voldemort cannot both survive, raising the possibility that one, or both of them could die in the end.

    http://investing.reuters.co.uk…..#038;sz=13

    HARRY POTTER: Chris Masse is a sucker, implies Niall O’Connor of Betting Market.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ng-market/

    Such is the rush of money for Harry Potter’s demise that William Hill has stopped taking bets as Harry Potter mania builds ahead of publication on July 21, 2007.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..y-21-2007/

    British edition of “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows” offers more clues

    http://blogs.mercurynews.com/a…..clues.html

    Is This the End of Harry, on the Web?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06…..3pott.html

    The Twisted Economics Of Harry Potter

    The wizard brings both profit and pain to his business partners

    http://www.businessweek.com/ma….._top+story

    Harry Potter printer steps up security

    http://new.edp24.co.uk/content…..3A59%3A653

    British printer of the 7th Harry Potter book, The Deathly Hallows, steps up security.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..-security/

    Harry Potter and the Plot-Spoiling, Phishing Scam

    http://www.eweek.com/article2/…..245,00.asp

    J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..t-not-die/

    J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..not-die-2/

    HARRY POTTER DEATH — NewsFutures prediction market = Zogby Interactive survey

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ve-survey/

    We, the undersigned, petition J.K. Rowling to write more new adventures for Harry Potter and his friends no matter what happens at the end of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..y-hallows/

    Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ter-short/

    The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..be-flawed/

    The Harry Potter litmus test

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..tmus-test/

    Deep Throat on the expiry of the Harry Potter event derivative

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..erivative/

    North Korean Missile Prediction Market = Harry Potter Demise Prediction Market

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..on-market/

    Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..as-oracle/

    Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle… AGAIN

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..cle-again/

    J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows is now accessible via BitTorrent.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ittorrent/

    People are googling HARRY POTTER EPILOGUE like crazy.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ike-crazy/

    Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

    http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..hallows-3/

    Reply ↓

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