Just thought this might interest some of you:
- Total volume in 2004 Democratic nomination markets: $5.2 million (data is taken from a talk I gave in San Diego)
- Volume in 2008 Dem and GOP nomination markets (with 7 months to go before the primaries start): $24 million
Update:
- CFM asks below whether the higher cumulative volumes on the 2008 contracts just reflect lots of trading in 2005 and early 2006. I didn’-t have an answer at the time, but if one recalculates the cumulative volume in the nomination markets as of today (10/24/07), it is $30.2 million, up about $6 million from early July.
- So more volume in the last 3.5 months than in the entire history of the 2004 markets. Of course, there are two nomination fights this time around, but there are also still months to go before the primaries.
- This, together with the fact that there are many more political markets on Intrade competing for liquidity, suggests that InTrade’-s politics markets are alive and well.
Maybe it is because manipulators are subsidizing informed traders.
Volumes went up a lot in 2005 and 2006, and then down in 2007 because of the damn anti-gambling law… and still today’s level is higher than the 2004’s level. Am I understanding well?