36 thoughts on “Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006: InTrade-TradeSports is toasted.”
Becoming a retail DCM is hard enough when you have a good relationship with the CFTC and are legally unambiguous.
They need to grow their non-US business. Whatever potential they have to someday operate legally in the US, their US focus should shift to the backburner, which would mark a reversal, but what’s the alternative?
Will their future growth be badly damaged? Probably. But their current capital is actually more likely to stay there, just because it will be very hard to move it around, and once it gets repatriated the bettor won’t be able to move it back offshore (at least not without a lot of risk/trouble).
Anyway, Intrade seems to be ok. Tradesports is in trouble, yeah. But Intrade? Jason was just saying the other day that Intrade stuff will be legit within 18 months?
I am glad to see that the banks have something to lose here. They could be very helpful to us/ the online gambling industry. The DOJ will not win a pissing contest with both Wall Street AND the UK.
The DOJ/ the casinos will swing Uncle Sam’s club for as long as they are able to… it’s time for someone more important than me to step up and start humiliating these people.
Because the US government is going after Internet gambling operators, as detailed in the post above. And because TradeSports-InTrade is not legal in the U.S., unlike HedgeStreet (and WeatherBill).
To Jason: “They need to grow their non-US business.”
They have NO non-US customers. None. Nada. Zero. And they are mediocre marketers. And the non-US speculators have been sucked up by BetFair.
I forecast the death of TradeSPorts-InTrade, but I wish the opposite outcome.
In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.
I meant that some company would probably be able to offer presidential contracts by the ‘08 election. I don’t know if Intrade’s position is tenable with the CFTC, even after their divestiture.
I guess probably Fortune or Forbes. British don’t give a damn.
And I am telling you that’s pre-law. Stuff like that takes months to set up. So it was signed months ago. If it’s a US media, one can guess that lawyers will look into it. I would be surprised if it were British media… maybe BBC America website?? hmmmm….
You have a point. But if that’s British media, as opposed to US media, I don’t see it as a marketing tool since virtually all TradeSports-InTrade clients are American. We will see.
BetFair partnered with Yahoo! U.K. and it did yield nothing. There is a difference between P.R. stuff and the bottom line.
“REUTERS”: It’s an agency, which gives feed for thought to the media. Reuters is not read by the retail investors and speculators, although they have made tremendous effort to have appealing websites.
TradeSports-InTrade is taken semi-seriously by Wall Streeters like our Barry Ritholtz when there’s high volumes (US presidential politics), but most of the other contracts are not very liquid. Would Reuters embed links to every prediction market into their wire outputs? We will see. That would be a major departure from traditional news agency business, whose info quality should not be tainted.
And as I say, it’s not because you “partner” with a prestigious organization that it will work. BetFair partnered with Yahoo! UK and the end result was nothing,
In all cases, that a media or news agency thought about partnering with a real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) is telling —prediction markets HAD arrived.
My bet would be Fortune or Forbes —maybe CNN, since it is part of Time Warner (which owns Fortune). We will see. Did you eliminate WSJ/DowJones in your guesses? Bloomberg?
Bloomberg would seem to be the best fit, but its writers/staff are generally somewhere to the left of Castro. (Not to mention Michael “Trans-fats Jihad” Bloomberg himself.)
CORRECTION: I had something in mind different than what John Delaney is talking about.
I thought about embedded prediction market links into news articles. He’s talking about a prediction exchange branded for a media. It’s different. Sorry, I was a bit off the tracks.
[…] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling […]
Becoming a retail DCM is hard enough when you have a good relationship with the CFTC and are legally unambiguous.
They need to grow their non-US business. Whatever potential they have to someday operate legally in the US, their US focus should shift to the backburner, which would mark a reversal, but what’s the alternative?
Will their future growth be badly damaged? Probably. But their current capital is actually more likely to stay there, just because it will be very hard to move it around, and once it gets repatriated the bettor won’t be able to move it back offshore (at least not without a lot of risk/trouble).
Anyway, Intrade seems to be ok. Tradesports is in trouble, yeah. But Intrade? Jason was just saying the other day that Intrade stuff will be legit within 18 months?
I am glad to see that the banks have something to lose here. They could be very helpful to us/ the online gambling industry. The DOJ will not win a pissing contest with both Wall Street AND the UK.
The DOJ/ the casinos will swing Uncle Sam’s club for as long as they are able to… it’s time for someone more important than me to step up and start humiliating these people.
Because the US government is going after Internet gambling operators, as detailed in the post above. And because TradeSports-InTrade is not legal in the U.S., unlike HedgeStreet (and WeatherBill).
To Jason: “They need to grow their non-US business.”
They have NO non-US customers. None. Nada. Zero. And they are mediocre marketers. And the non-US speculators have been sucked up by BetFair.
I forecast the death of TradeSPorts-InTrade, but I wish the opposite outcome.
In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.
I meant that some company would probably be able to offer presidential contracts by the ‘08 election. I don’t know if Intrade’s position is tenable with the CFTC, even after their divestiture.
I guess probably Fortune or Forbes. British don’t give a damn.
And I am telling you that’s pre-law. Stuff like that takes months to set up. So it was signed months ago. If it’s a US media, one can guess that lawyers will look into it. I would be surprised if it were British media… maybe BBC America website?? hmmmm….
You have a point. But if that’s British media, as opposed to US media, I don’t see it as a marketing tool since virtually all TradeSports-InTrade clients are American. We will see.
BetFair partnered with Yahoo! U.K. and it did yield nothing. There is a difference between P.R. stuff and the bottom line.
“REUTERS”: It’s an agency, which gives feed for thought to the media. Reuters is not read by the retail investors and speculators, although they have made tremendous effort to have appealing websites.
TradeSports-InTrade is taken semi-seriously by Wall Streeters like our Barry Ritholtz when there’s high volumes (US presidential politics), but most of the other contracts are not very liquid. Would Reuters embed links to every prediction market into their wire outputs? We will see. That would be a major departure from traditional news agency business, whose info quality should not be tainted.
And as I say, it’s not because you “partner” with a prestigious organization that it will work. BetFair partnered with Yahoo! UK and the end result was nothing,
In all cases, that a media or news agency thought about partnering with a real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) is telling —prediction markets HAD arrived.
My bet would be Fortune or Forbes —maybe CNN, since it is part of Time Warner (which owns Fortune). We will see. Did you eliminate WSJ/DowJones in your guesses? Bloomberg?
Bloomberg would seem to be the best fit, but its writers/staff are generally somewhere to the left of Castro. (Not to mention Michael “Trans-fats Jihad” Bloomberg himself.)
CORRECTION: I had something in mind different than what John Delaney is talking about.
I thought about embedded prediction market links into news articles. He’s talking about a prediction exchange branded for a media. It’s different. Sorry, I was a bit off the tracks.
[…] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling […]
Becoming a retail DCM is hard enough when you have a good relationship with the CFTC and are legally unambiguous.
They need to grow their non-US business. Whatever potential they have to someday operate legally in the US, their US focus should shift to the backburner, which would mark a reversal, but what’s the alternative?
Why is Tradesports/Intrade “toasted”?
Will their future growth be badly damaged? Probably. But their current capital is actually more likely to stay there, just because it will be very hard to move it around, and once it gets repatriated the bettor won’t be able to move it back offshore (at least not without a lot of risk/trouble).
Anyway, Intrade seems to be ok. Tradesports is in trouble, yeah. But Intrade? Jason was just saying the other day that Intrade stuff will be legit within 18 months?
I am glad to see that the banks have something to lose here. They could be very helpful to us/ the online gambling industry. The DOJ will not win a pissing contest with both Wall Street AND the UK.
The DOJ/ the casinos will swing Uncle Sam’s club for as long as they are able to… it’s time for someone more important than me to step up and start humiliating these people.
To Alex: “Why is Tradesports/Intrade “toasted”?”
Because the US government is going after Internet gambling operators, as detailed in the post above. And because TradeSports-InTrade is not legal in the U.S., unlike HedgeStreet (and WeatherBill).
To Jason: “They need to grow their non-US business.”
They have NO non-US customers. None. Nada. Zero. And they are mediocre marketers. And the non-US speculators have been sucked up by BetFair.
I forecast the death of TradeSPorts-InTrade, but I wish the opposite outcome.
In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.
I meant that some company would probably be able to offer presidential contracts by the ‘08 election. I don’t know if Intrade’s position is tenable with the CFTC, even after their divestiture.
“In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.”
That was before the anti-Internet gambling law.
No, this was a very recent announcement. JD didn’t say which network, but one would guess the BBC, a priori.
I guess probably Fortune or Forbes. British don’t give a damn.
And I am telling you that’s pre-law. Stuff like that takes months to set up. So it was signed months ago. If it’s a US media, one can guess that lawyers will look into it. I would be surprised if it were British media… maybe BBC America website?? hmmmm….
Whoever it was, sure, they might always reconsider, but the fact that it was mentioned recently suggests that it’s still expected.
You have a point. But if that’s British media, as opposed to US media, I don’t see it as a marketing tool since virtually all TradeSports-InTrade clients are American. We will see.
BetFair partnered with Yahoo! U.K. and it did yield nothing. There is a difference between P.R. stuff and the bottom line.
I’m guessing REUTERS. But we may never know if the partner gets spooked by the recent DOJ moves…
Reuters was my second guess because they have more business and offices in the US.
The DOJ is going to investigate all operators and intermediaries up to a certain point…
Where this point is, has yet to be made clear.
“REUTERS”: It’s an agency, which gives feed for thought to the media. Reuters is not read by the retail investors and speculators, although they have made tremendous effort to have appealing websites.
TradeSports-InTrade is taken semi-seriously by Wall Streeters like our Barry Ritholtz when there’s high volumes (US presidential politics), but most of the other contracts are not very liquid. Would Reuters embed links to every prediction market into their wire outputs? We will see. That would be a major departure from traditional news agency business, whose info quality should not be tainted.
And as I say, it’s not because you “partner” with a prestigious organization that it will work. BetFair partnered with Yahoo! UK and the end result was nothing,
In all cases, that a media or news agency thought about partnering with a real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) is telling —prediction markets HAD arrived.
My bet would be Fortune or Forbes —maybe CNN, since it is part of Time Warner (which owns Fortune). We will see. Did you eliminate WSJ/DowJones in your guesses? Bloomberg?
Bloomberg would seem to be the best fit, but its writers/staff are generally somewhere to the left of Castro. (Not to mention Michael “Trans-fats Jihad” Bloomberg himself.)
CORRECTION: I had something in mind different than what John Delaney is talking about.
I thought about embedded prediction market links into news articles. He’s talking about a prediction exchange branded for a media. It’s different. Sorry, I was a bit off the tracks.
http://www.intrade.com/news/news_101.html
THE FINANCIAL TIMES AND INTRADE-TRADESPORTS HAVE BEEN WORKING ON FT PREDICT FOR ALMOST A YEAR.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..st-a-year/
IS REUTERS PARTNERING WITH TRADESPORTS??
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..adesports/
[…] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling […]
Becoming a retail DCM is hard enough when you have a good relationship with the CFTC and are legally unambiguous.
They need to grow their non-US business. Whatever potential they have to someday operate legally in the US, their US focus should shift to the backburner, which would mark a reversal, but what’s the alternative?
Why is Tradesports/Intrade “toasted”?
Will their future growth be badly damaged? Probably. But their current capital is actually more likely to stay there, just because it will be very hard to move it around, and once it gets repatriated the bettor won’t be able to move it back offshore (at least not without a lot of risk/trouble).
Anyway, Intrade seems to be ok. Tradesports is in trouble, yeah. But Intrade? Jason was just saying the other day that Intrade stuff will be legit within 18 months?
I am glad to see that the banks have something to lose here. They could be very helpful to us/ the online gambling industry. The DOJ will not win a pissing contest with both Wall Street AND the UK.
The DOJ/ the casinos will swing Uncle Sam’s club for as long as they are able to… it’s time for someone more important than me to step up and start humiliating these people.
To Alex: “Why is Tradesports/Intrade “toasted”?”
Because the US government is going after Internet gambling operators, as detailed in the post above. And because TradeSports-InTrade is not legal in the U.S., unlike HedgeStreet (and WeatherBill).
To Jason: “They need to grow their non-US business.”
They have NO non-US customers. None. Nada. Zero. And they are mediocre marketers. And the non-US speculators have been sucked up by BetFair.
I forecast the death of TradeSPorts-InTrade, but I wish the opposite outcome.
In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.
I meant that some company would probably be able to offer presidential contracts by the ‘08 election. I don’t know if Intrade’s position is tenable with the CFTC, even after their divestiture.
“In terms of marketing, they have some agreement for a news network tie-in that should surface this year.”
That was before the anti-Internet gambling law.
No, this was a very recent announcement. JD didn’t say which network, but one would guess the BBC, a priori.
I guess probably Fortune or Forbes. British don’t give a damn.
And I am telling you that’s pre-law. Stuff like that takes months to set up. So it was signed months ago. If it’s a US media, one can guess that lawyers will look into it. I would be surprised if it were British media… maybe BBC America website?? hmmmm….
Whoever it was, sure, they might always reconsider, but the fact that it was mentioned recently suggests that it’s still expected.
You have a point. But if that’s British media, as opposed to US media, I don’t see it as a marketing tool since virtually all TradeSports-InTrade clients are American. We will see.
BetFair partnered with Yahoo! U.K. and it did yield nothing. There is a difference between P.R. stuff and the bottom line.
I’m guessing REUTERS. But we may never know if the partner gets spooked by the recent DOJ moves…
Reuters was my second guess because they have more business and offices in the US.
The DOJ is going to investigate all operators and intermediaries up to a certain point…
Where this point is, has yet to be made clear.
“REUTERS”: It’s an agency, which gives feed for thought to the media. Reuters is not read by the retail investors and speculators, although they have made tremendous effort to have appealing websites.
TradeSports-InTrade is taken semi-seriously by Wall Streeters like our Barry Ritholtz when there’s high volumes (US presidential politics), but most of the other contracts are not very liquid. Would Reuters embed links to every prediction market into their wire outputs? We will see. That would be a major departure from traditional news agency business, whose info quality should not be tainted.
And as I say, it’s not because you “partner” with a prestigious organization that it will work. BetFair partnered with Yahoo! UK and the end result was nothing,
In all cases, that a media or news agency thought about partnering with a real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) is telling —prediction markets HAD arrived.
My bet would be Fortune or Forbes —maybe CNN, since it is part of Time Warner (which owns Fortune). We will see. Did you eliminate WSJ/DowJones in your guesses? Bloomberg?
Bloomberg would seem to be the best fit, but its writers/staff are generally somewhere to the left of Castro. (Not to mention Michael “Trans-fats Jihad” Bloomberg himself.)
CORRECTION: I had something in mind different than what John Delaney is talking about.
I thought about embedded prediction market links into news articles. He’s talking about a prediction exchange branded for a media. It’s different. Sorry, I was a bit off the tracks.
http://www.intrade.com/news/news_101.html
THE FINANCIAL TIMES AND INTRADE-TRADESPORTS HAVE BEEN WORKING ON FT PREDICT FOR ALMOST A YEAR.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..st-a-year/
IS REUTERS PARTNERING WITH TRADESPORTS??
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..adesports/
[…] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling […]